UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva

Odds: (-230 Gustafsson /+180 Silva )

Betting pick: Gustafsson

Bet on this fight at Bovada.com

In the main event of the evening, American Top Team’s Thiago Silva returns to action following a layoff of over a year. Standing in his way is skilled Swedish veteran Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson. Both of these guys have fight-ending potential with their striking, but Gustafsson has a very accomplished ground game as well, so Silva is going to have to be careful to avoid takedowns or to control top position if this fight does go to the mat. Gustafson is riding a four fight win streak, so a signature win here could go a long way toward establishing him as a player in the title scene. Silva, for his part, badly needs a win to reassert himself near the top of the division after a fairly extended period of inactivity. Both of these guys have versatile, dangerous skill sets and a lot to fight for, so this has the makings of a very competitive main event.

Thiago Silva is, without question, one of the more formidable strikers in the Light Heavyweight division. Despite his dangerous striking prowess, though, Silva has not actually won a fight since August of 2009. He has fought only twice since then, suffering a defeat at the hands of Rashad Evans and having a unanimous decision win against Brandon Vera overturned after falsifying a urine sample for a post-fight drug test. It remains to be seen how much the layoff will impact Silva’s effectiveness, but the combination of 2 fights in 2 ½ years and presumably being off performance enhancers make it unlikely that he will be in top form. Still, anyone who is willing to stand and let Silva throw punches at them is inviting trouble, and Silva has very effective takedown defense, so if Gustafsson takes him lightly he could easily find his winning streak snapped.

Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson is a tall, dangerous Light Heavyweight with a versatile skill set. He has scary punching power that can end fights and extremely effective submissions from a variety of positions. Gustafsson has only been defeated once as a professional, when Phil Davis physically dominated him before submitting him with an Anaconda Choke. It is unlikely that Silva will be able to recreate that game plan, but there is also no question that Silva is the most dangerous and experienced fighter Gustafsson has ever faced. Gustafsson is a great striker in his own right, but I don’t think it would be wise for him to engage in a kickboxing match with Silva. Gustafsson’s strength in this fight is his superior versatility, which will allow him to score some points on the feet and with takedowns and positional control. If he can press his advantage he will be in great shape to make it five in a row.

This is going to be a very competitive matchup. Both guys can get the job done in the striking exchanges, but I think the technique edge on the feet has to go to Silva. There is no question that Gustafsson is the more versatile of the two, and should be able to control the fight if he can force it to the ground, but Silva is difficult to take down and could easily punish Gustafsson for failing to secure takedowns. In the end, though, I think Gustafsson has the slight edge overall because of his ability to score points anywhere the fight goes. Silva will land some shots, but so will Gustafsson, and I think Gustafsson will be able to take Silva down a time or two and score enough points on the ground to earn the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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Live odds for tonights The Ultimate Fighter 15, Episode 4.  Live on FX tonigt at 10:00 p.m. E.T.  Myles Jury (9-0) will take on Al Iaquinta (5-1).

Myles Jury vs. Al Iaquinta

Bodog.com Odds

• Jury            (-280)
• Iaquinta   (+220)

Betonline.com Odds

• Jury          (-265)
• Iaquinta  (+225)

Current UFC on FOX 3 Betting Odds – On Saturday, May 5, 2012, UFC returns to the FOX network with their third installment of UFC on FOX, live from the IZOD Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Headlining the event is a big showdown between two of the Lightweight division’s most prolific submission grapplers, as Stockton’s own Nathan Diaz will square off against hometown favorite Jim Miller. Both of these guys have world-class ground games and extremely effective submissions, which could turn this into a legendary ground battle. Diaz, for his part, is also a very dangerous striker with unorthodox but effective boxing and great judo throws from the clinch, while Miller is the stronger of the two and the better wrestler. On the ground both of these guys have the ability to catch the other, so this might come down to whether or not Diaz can box Miller around or whether Miller will be able to out muscle Diaz and control position.

Main Card:

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

Bodog.com Odds

• Diaz      (+180)
• Miller   (-230)

Betonline.com Odds

• Diaz      (+190)
  
• Miller   (-220)
  

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Bodog.com Odds

• Koscheck   (+100)
• Hendricks  (-130)

Betonline.com Odds

• Koscheck    (+110)
  
• Hendricks   (-130)
  

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

Bodog.com Odds

• Palhares  (-285)
  
• Belcher    (+225)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Palhares  (-275)
  
• Belcher    (+230)
  

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

Bodog.com Odds

• Barry         (-200)
• Johnson   (+160)

Betonline.com Odds

• Barry         (-205)
  
• Johnson   (+175)
  

Preliminary Card:

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliot

Bodog.com Odds

• Dodson    (-500)
• Elliot        (+350)

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson

Bodog.com Odds

• Ferguson  (-270)
  
• Johnson    (+210)
  

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss

Bodog.com Odds

• Hathaway   (-230)
• Krauss          (+180)

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker

Bodog.com Odds

• Gaudinot  (+250)
• Lineker     (-325)

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish

Bodog.com Odds

• Castillo   (-130)
• Cholish   (+100)

Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza

Bodog.com Odds

• Bermudez   (-185)
  
• Garza            (+150)
  

Nick Denis vs. Roland Delorme

Bodog.com Odds

• Denis         (-275)
• Delorme   (+215)

Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola

Bodog.com Odds

• Massenzio   (-110)
• Vemola        (-120)

In the semi-main event, American Kickboxing Academy’s Josh Koscheck will look to avenge teammate Jon Fitch’s recent shocking upset loss against up and comer Johny Hendricks. Koscheck is obviously one of the most dominant wrestlers at 170 pounds, but Hendricks has shown time and again that he has fight ending power in his hands, so this should be a great Welterweight clash. Rounding out the card are a middleweight bout between Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares and Alan Belcher, a Heavyweight slug fest pitting Lavar Johnson against Pat Barry, and a lightweight showdown between Thiago Tavares and Tony Ferguson.

Current UFC 145 Betting Odds – On Saturday, April 21, 2012, UFC 145 will air live from Phillips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. In the main event, former teammates and friends “Suga” Rashad Evans and Jon “Bones” Jones will battle it out for Jones’ Light Heavyweight title. Jones has looked utterly unstoppable in his rise to the championship, but Evans has fought top competition for years, won the title himself, and has more insight than the average challenger into Jones’ style, strengths, and weaknesses. Add in the intense dislike these two feel for each other, and you have all the makings of a legendary title bout. Both of these guys have punching power, both of them have dominant wrestling, and both of them really want a win here. Will Jones’ freakish athleticism be enough to trump Rashad’s superior experience and slick counter-fighting style, or will Evans be able to derail the Jon Jones hype train?

Main Card:

Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans

Bodog.com Odds

• Jones    (-450)
• Evans   (+325)

Betonline.com Odds

• Jones   (-460)
• Evans   (+375)

Bookmaker.com Odds

• Jones   (-465)
• Evans  (+365)

Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills

Bodog.com Odds

• MacDonald   (-600)
  
• Mills            (+400)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• MacDonald   (-560)
  
• Mills                 (+455)
  

Brendan Schaub vs. Ben Rothwell

Bodog.com Odds

• Schaub       (-300)
  
• Rothwell   (+230)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Schaub      (-300)
  
• Rothwell   (+250)
  

Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin

Bodog.com Odds

• Hominick   (-550)
• Yagin           (+375)

Betonline.com Odds

• Hominick   (-535)
• Yagin           (+430)

Mark Bocek vs. John Alessio

Bodog.com Odds

• Bocek     (-370)
• Alessio   (+280)

Betonline.com Odds

• Bocek    (-345)
• Wiman  (+290)

Preliminary Card:

Miguel Torres vs. Michael McDonald

Bodog.com Odds

• Torres            (-125)
• McDonald    (-105)

Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs

Bodog.com Odds

• Browne   (-270)
• Griggs     (+210)

Matt Brown vs. Stephen Thompson

Bodog.com Odds

• Brown            (+215)
• Thompson   (-275)

John Makdessi vs. Anthony Njokuani

Bodog.com Odds

• Makdessi    (+170)
• Njokuani    (-210)

Mac Danzig vs. Efrain Escudero

Bodog.com Odds

• Danzig         (-200)
• Escudero   (+160)

Keith Wisniewski vs. Chris Clements

Bodog.com Odds

• Wisniewski   (+170)
• Clements       (-210)

Marcus Brimage vs. Maximo Blanco

Bodog.com Odds

• Brimage    (+220)
• Blanco       (-280)

In the semi-main event, well-rounded Canadian Rory “Ares” MacDonald will face off against devastating striker “Beautiful” Che Mills. MacDonald is very effective and versatile but Mills had destructive power in his hands, legs, and knees, so “Ares” is going to have to be careful of the striking. The rest of the card will feature a Heavyweight showdown between former IFL champ “Big” Ben Rothwell and Ultimate Fighter alum Brendan Schaub, a Featherweight bout pitting Eddie “The Filipino Phenom” Yagin against Mark “The Machine” Hominick, and a Lightweight matchup between Mark Bocek and Matt Wiman.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 145 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.

On Saturday, April 14, 2012, the second installment of UFC on Fuel TV will air live from the Ericsson Arena in Stockholm, Sweden. In the main event of the evening, American Top Team’s Thiago Silva will square off against Stockholm’s own Alexander Gustafsson. Silva is a devastating striker, but has had mixed results recently and badly needs a win here. Gustaffson has powerful striking of his own to go along with an effective ground game and solid wrestling. This has all the makings of a very competitive fight, but if Alves wants to spoil Gustafsson’s homecoming he is going to need to find a way to apply pressure on the feet without getting caught by Gustafsson’s power shots and also find a way to keep this fight standing as much as possible.

Main Card:

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva

Bodog.com Odds

• Gustafsson   (-230)
• Silva               (+180)

Betonline.com Odds

• Gustafsson  (-225)
• Silva              (+195)

Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara

Bodog.com Odds

• Stann     (-400)
• Sakara   (+300)

Betonline.com Odds

• Stann    (-395)
• Sakara  (+325)

Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada

Bodog.com Odds

• Thiago                  (-160)
• Bahadurzada     (+130)

Betonline.com Odds

• Thiago
• Bahadurzada

Dennis Siver vs. Diego Nunes

Bodog.com Odds

• Siver     (+125)
• Nunes   (-155)

Betonline.com Odds

• Siver
• Nunes

DaMarques Johnson vs. John Maguire

Bodog.com Odds

• Johnson   (+115)
• Maguire   (-145)

Betonline.com Odds

• Johnson
• Maguire

Preliminary Card:

Papy Abedi vs. James Head

Bodog.com Odds

• Abedi  (-250)
• Head    (+195)

Cyrille Diabate vs. Tom DeBlass

Bodog.com Odds

• Diabate  (+160)
• DeBlass   (-200)

Francis Carmont vs. Magnus Cedenbald

Bodog.com Odds

• Carmont       (-250)
• Cedenbald   (+195)

Reza Madadi vs. Yoislandy Izquierdo

Bodog.com Odds

• Madadi        (-225)
• Izquierdo   (+175)

Simeon Thoresen vs. Besam Yousef

Bodog.com Odds

• Thoresen  (-325)
• Yousef       (+250)

Jason Young vs. Eric Wisley

Bodog.com Odds

• Young  (-185)
• Wisely  (+150)

In the semi-main event, “The Angel of Death” Damacio Page will face off with Brad “One Punch” Pickett in a featured Bantamweight showdown. Both of these guys are dangerous and experienced veterans who can end fights with strikes or on the ground, so this has fight of the night potential. Rounding out the card are a Welterweight matchup pitting Golden Glory’s Siyar Bahadurzada against Paulo Thiago, a Middleweight showdown between Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara and Brian “All American” Stann, and the Featherweight debut of Dennis Siver, who will face Diego “The Gun” Nunes in his first trip to 145.

Be sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC on Fuel TV 2 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.

Event:  UFC 145 – Jones vs. Evans

Date:  Saturday, April 21, 2012

Venue:  The Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia

Broadcast:  Live on PPV at 10:00 p.m. E.T.

Main Card:

• Jon Jones (15-1) vs. Rashad Evans (17-1-1) LHW Title Fight
• Rory MacDonald (12-1) vs. Che Mills (14-4-1)
• Brendan Schaub (8-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (31-8)
• Mark Hominick (20-10) vs. Eddie Yagin (15-5-1)
• Mark Bocek (10-4) vs. Matt Wiman (14-6)

Preliminary Card on (FX)

• Miguel Torres (40-4) vs. Michael McDonald ()
• Travis Browne (12-0-1) vs. Chad Griggs ()
• Matt Brown (13-11) vs. Stephen Thompson (6-0)
• John Makdessi (9-1) vs. Anthony Njokuani (14-6-1) 

Preliminary Card on (Facebook)

• Mac Danzig (20-9-1) vs. Efrain Escudero (18-4)
• Keith Wisniewski (28-13-1) vs. Chris Clements (10-4)
• Maximo Blanco (8-3-1-1) vs. Marcus Brimage (4-1)

In what has the makings of a legendary UFC Heavyweight Title match, former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem will challenge UFC Heavyweight champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos for his title. Dos Santos destroyed former champion Cain Velasquez in his last outing, while Alistair Overeem beat another former champion, Brock Lesnar, right into retirement.

These are easily the two most dominant strikers in the Heavyweight division, so this fight has all the makings of a classic. Dos Santos has proven that his combination of hand speed, accuracy, and power is one of the most deadly skill sets in the world, but Overeem has fought many of the world’s most formidable kickboxers in K-1 and has very underrated wrestling and submissions to go along with his striking. Right now, dos Santos is a small betting favorite, and I think Overeem is definitely worth a look as an underdog pick. He is bigger and stronger, has better wrestling and submissions, has fought much higher-level strikers than dos Santos, and will use his physicality and Muay Thai technique to dominate in the clinch. This is going to be an exciting matchup, and both guys have the power and technique to end this at any point, but I think Overeem is worth a look as an underdog.

Junior Dos Santos’ Last Five Fights

• Win over Cain Velasquez via KO at UFC on FOX 1
•  Win over Shane Carwin via Unanimous Decision at UFC 131
• Win over Roy Nelson via Unanimous Decision at UFC 117
•  Win over Gabriel Gonzaga via KO at UFC on Versus 1
• Win over Gilbert Yvel via TKO at UFC 108   

Alistair Overeem’s Last Five Fights

• Win over Brock Lesnar via TKO at UFC 141
• Win over Fabricio Werdum via Unanimous Decision at Strikeforce
• Win over Todd Duffee via KO at Dynamite!! 2010
• Win over Brett Rogers via TKO at Strikeforce
• Win over Kazuyuki Fujita via KO at Dynamite!! 2009

 Junior Dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem

Bodog.com Odds

• Dos Santos  (-165)
• Overeem     (+135)

Betonline.com Odds

• Dos Santos
• Overeem

Bookmaker.com Odds

• Dos Santos    (-165)
• Overeem        (+135)

If you want to get an early jump on these UFC  Odds for Dos Santos vs. Overeem,  you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com or one of our other MMA Betting Sites.

UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Thiago Alves

Odds: ( +105 Kampmann /-135 Alves )

Betting Pick: Kampmann

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, former title challenger Thiago “Pitbull” Alves will square off against well-rounded Danish kickboxer Martin Kampmann in a featured Welterweight bout. Alves has shown time and again that he is one of the most dangerous and effective strikers in the Welterweight division, with punishing boxing and devastating kicks,but Kampmann is a formidable striker in his own right and also brings solid wrestling and effective jiu-jitsu to the cage. Both of these guys have had mixed results recently, but with Georges St.Pierre injured and Nick Diaz likely serving a long suspension, a win here could put them right back in the mix in the clouded title picture. The question here is whether Alves’ crushing physical strength and brutal Muay Thai will be enough to trump Kampmann’s superior versatility, or will Kampmann be able to impose his will and ground Alves, taking him off his game?

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves is, without a doubt, one of the most powerful and effective Welterweight strikers in the world. He has great boxing with heavy hands, brutal kicks to the legs and body, and devastating knees and dirty boxing from inside the clinch. There is no question that Alves has what it takes to stand and trade with anyone in the division, but he has shown some difficulty dealing with superior grapplers. The last three quality wrestlers he fought all managed to neutralize his offense either in the clinch or by putting him on his back, and he lost all three of those fights by decision. Kampmann isn’t as solid a wrestler as Fitch or Georges St. Pierre, but he does have solid takedowns and a quality ground game, so if Alves wants to win here he is going to have to make Kampmann pay for trying to get in close, either by catching him with punches on the way inside or by using his size and strength advantage, along with knees and dirty boxing, to wear Kampmann down in the clinch. If Kampmann is able to get Alves to the ground he is going to have a very difficult time fighting off his back, so it is imperative that Alves try to maintain some distance, chop away at Kampmann’s base with leg kicks, and use his jab to push Kampmann away and set up power punches.

Martin Kampmann, who trains out of the Xtreme Couture camp in Las Vegas, is without a doubt one of the most versatile and effective Welterweights in the UFC. He isn’t the division’s best grappler, or its most devastating striker, but very few Welterweights have such a well-rounded skill set or put it all together nearly as well. While he has dropped two of his last three fights, many feel he was robbed in his split decision loss to former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields. One question mark about Kampmann that could play an important role in this fight is his chin. He doesn’t have a glass jaw, but he has been knocked out by much less dangerous strikers than Alves, so if he lets Alves find a groove on the feet and start landing punches he could find himself in very serious trouble. Kampmann’s best weapon here is going to be his versatility. He shouldn’t totally shy away from striking with Alves, because he has good striking in his own right, but by mixing up his skills and using his well-rounded offense to keep Alves guessing, he can prevent Alves from asserting his will on the feet.

This is going to be a very competitive bout. Both of these guys have the potential to end the fight standing, but I think if this plays out as a kickboxing match Kampmann will ultimately get caught by the much more formidable Alves. If Kampmann can mix it up well, though, like he does in his best performances, it is going to be difficult for Alves to settle into his game plan, which is very dependent onout-muscling his opponents and chopping away at them with those powerful leg kicks. In the end, I think Kampmann’s wrestling is going to be the wild card here. While he is primarily known for his striking and his submissions, Kampmann’s takedowns are very underrated, both in the clinch and from range, and I think that is going to be the difference maker. Alves does not work well off his back at all, and I think Kampmann can not only score points with takedowns, but frustrate Alves and prevent him from really settling in to his game plan. This will be a hard-fought bout, and Alves will get some shots in, but I think Kampmann’s ability to dictate position andfight in all ranges will be the difference maker. Kampmann by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Martin Kampmann by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.

Current UFC on FX 2 Betting Odds- On Saturday, March 3, 2012, UFC returns to the FX network with UFC on FX 2, live from the Allphones Arena in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.  In the headlining bout, former Welterweight title challenger Thiago “Pitbull” Alves will square off against well-rounded Dane Martin Kampmann.  Alves is without a doubt one of the premier Welterweight strikers in the world, but it remains to be seen whether his mastery of striking will be enough to conquer Kampmann’s dangerous, versatile skill set.  Alves is a master of one skill, while Kampmann is a jack of all trades but a master of none.  Will dominant striking prevail, or will Kampmann’s ability to fight anywhere prove too much?

Main Card:

Martin Kampmann vs. Thiago Alves

Bodog.com Odds

• Kampmann   (+105)
  
• Alves                (-135)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Kampmann  (+115)
• Alves              (-135)

Joseph Benavidez vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani

Bodog.com Odds

• Benavidez    (-900)
  
• Urushitani   (+550)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Benavidez
• Urushitani

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall

Bodog.com Odds

• Johnson   (-305)
  
• McCall      (+235)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Johnson
• McCall

Court McGee vs. Constantinos Philippou

Bodog.com Odds

• McGee        (-145)
  
• Philippou  (+115)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• McGee
• Philippou

Preliminary Card:

James Te Huna vs. Aaron Rosa

Bodog.com Odds

• Te Huna   (-300)
  
• Rosa          (+240)
  

Anthony Perosh vs. Nick Penner

Bodog.com Odds

• Perosh   (+105)
  
• Penner   (-135)
  

Cole Miller vs. Steven Siler

Bodog.com Odds

• Miller   (-400)
  
• Siler      (+300)
  

Kyle Noke vs. Andrew Craig

Bodog.com Odds

• Noke   (-275)
  
• Craig   (+215)
  

TJ Waldburger vs. Jake Hecht

Bodog.com Odds

• Waldburger    (-115)
  
• Hecht                (-115)
  

Mackens Semerzier vs. Daniel Pineda

Bodog.com Odds

• Semerzier    (-165)
  
• Pineda          (+135)
  

Oli Thompson vs. Shawn Jordan

Bodog.com Odds

• Thompson   (+270)
  
• Jordan           (-210)
  

In the semi-main event, former SHOOTO Bantamweight champion Yasuhiro Urushitani makes his UFC debut against former WEC standout Joseph Benavidez.  Urushitani is a slick counter-puncher with a hard style to crack, but Benavidez is a prolific submission grappler and a great finisher, so this is going to be a tough debut for the Japanese superstar.  Rounding out the main card are another Bantamweight match between Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and Ian McCall, a middleweight showdown between Ultimate Fighter winner Court “The Crusher” McGee and Constantinos Philippou, and a Light Heavyweight bout pitting Australia’s own James Te Huna against Aaron Rosa.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC on FX 2 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.

UFC Welterweight bout:  Jake Shields vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Odds:  (-300 Shields /+230 Akiyama )

Betting Pick:  Shields

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In a featured Welterweight bout, former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields will look to recover from a two-fight skid against K-1 Hero’s veteran Yoshihiro Akiyama, who has dropped three in a row. Shields was once considered the best fighter in the world outside of the UFC, but has had an extremely rocky start to his UFC career, barely scraping by Martin Kampmann before getting destroyed by Welterweight champ Georges “Rush” St. Pierre and Jake Ellenberger in his last two outings. With both guys riding losing streaks in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions, a win here is crucial for both men if they want to stay employed, much less assert themselves as legitimate players in the title picture. Despite their recent mixed results, both of these guys have versatile and dangerous skill sets, and with the added pressure of their losing streaks, this has the makings of an extremely competitive bout.

Yoshihiro “Sexyama” Akiyama, with his good looks and exciting, fight-finishing style, made himself one of the most popular fighters in Japan. He entered the UFC riding an 11 fight win streak, but has gone an extremely disappointing 1-4 inside the Octagon. Akiyama is an aggressive fighter with good judo throws from the clinch, solid boxing with good punching power, and effective submission offense. Against Shields it would be extremely inadvisable for him to try to turn this into a ground contest, because it is unlikely that he will be able to effectively take Shields down and, more importantly, because Shields’ submissions are way better than Akiyama’s defense. On the feet he will enjoy an advantage in speed, technique, and power, and if he wants to avoid another consecutive loss, he would be well served to try and stay on the outside and use his striking to keep Shields at bay. It’s worth noting that this is Akiyama’s first time fighting at 170 pounds, which could either mean that he will be even more effective because of his size advantage and because his power will translate better, or that he will struggle with the cut and suffer in the cardio and strength departments.

Jake Shields is one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the world at 170 pounds. A skilled wrestler as well, Shields is extremely good at getting fights to the ground, controlling opponents from top position, and setting up his ridiculously good submissions. His striking isn’t awful, but it is very rudimentary and he lacks any kind of real punching power. He can hold his own and defend himself, but his boxing is not going to strike fear into anyone’s heart, to put it mildly. Shields’ gameplan against Akiyama will be the same as it is against anyone: he will look for the takedown early and often and try to impose his will. Akiyama is a good grappler in his own right, but he doesn’t have what it takes to hang with Shields in an extended ground war, so if Shields can get his wrestling going early on he will be in a great position to reverse his fortunes and get a win here.

I don’t think this is a particularly favorable matchup for Akiyama. He will enjoy a striking advantage, but I don’t think that he has what it takes to keep Shields from taking him down and controlling this fight from top position. Despite getting triangle choked by Chris Leben, Akiyama actually does have fairly good submission defense, so he should be able to hang around for the judges’ decision, but I think Shields controls the pace and positioning for a relatively easy unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.