UFC 77 betting picks
October 19, 2007
My picks for UFC 77. I did very well on UFC 76, however we had a publishing problem and they didn’t get posted so I’m not counting them on the record. From top to bottom, I’m very excited about this card.
Tim Sylvia (+125) vs. Brandon Vera (-155)
- This bout has received a lot of attention from bettors. Vera is the new golden boy, with an 8-0 record and some great kicking power. Sylvia is coming off surgery, but from what I’ve read it really hasn’t affected his training as much as we thought. From a betting point, I really think almost everything has to go right for Brandon Vera to win this match. He could be much better than we all thought and blow Sylvia away. However, he also could get rattled very easily on such a large stage and buckle under the pressure. With a veteran like Sylvia as an underdog, I’ll take him in this spot.
My bet : $200 on Tim Sylvia at +125 at Bodog
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Anderson Silva (-210) vs. Rich Franklin (+170)
- How can anyone go against Silva right now? He’s the hottest fighter in the middleweight division and has shown no signs at all of slowing down. This is precisely why, i’m not backing him in this bout. There is an overwhelming amount of people betting on Silva in this bout and at -210, that seems a bit fishy to me. In most other sports a scenario like this spells doom for everyone on the Silva ship. I’m actually going to lay off this fight totally, but if I had a gun to my head I’d take Franklin for a small amount.
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Kalib Starnes (-130) vs. Alan Belcher (+100)
- This is probably going to be a very close fight that goes all three rounds. I have some serious questions about Kalib Starnes, and from talking with a few other knowledgeable UFC fans, they all feel the same way. I’m going to place a value bet on Alan Belcher here at +100.
My bet : $100 on Alan Belcher at +100 at BetUS
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Yushin Okami (-240) vs. Jason Macdonald (+190)
- I really like Okami in this bout, but I just can’t force myself to lay a lot of money on him with the odds this high. Yushin will probably win this bout via technical knockout in the 2nd or 3rd round. I’ve seen a lot of people talking about Macdonald to win this fight, but I think there are a lot of question marks with him. I think his submission ability is very good, but is that enough to beat someone as strong and versatile as Okami?
My bet : $120 on Okami to win $50 at BetUS
Other bouts for the night
Many of the undercard bouts on UFC 77 have some really unflattering odds on them. I can’t really pick out any of the fights that I would even want to put money on, let alone a good chunk of money. I’m going to lay off the other fights for now. If I do add a bet or two, I will make sure to post it tomorrow before 4 PM ET.
Get your bets in now!
If you don’t have a sportsbook account yet, I use both Bodog and BetUS. Bodog usually has better underdog lines, and BetUS usually has better favorite lines. Check em out now… Go to Bodog - Go to BetUS
UFC 77 odds are moving!
October 12, 2007
The odds for UFC 77 have been moving all over the place in the past 2 weeks. Follow along as I go over the changes in this article.
Line changes at Bodog Life
- Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva opened at Silva (-270) and Franklin (+210). Since then the odds have shifted drastically and Silva is now listed at (-190) and Franklin is (+155). Bodog currently has the best odds for betting on Silva out of all the major online sportsbooks.
- Brandon Vera and Tim Sylvia haven’t really drawn much action yet from bettors at Bodog. The line for this bout opened at Vera (-200) and Sylvia (+160). Currently they are listed as Vera (-180) and Sylvia (+160). Not a significant change at all really.
Line changes at 5dimes
- The biggest jump in lines at 5dimes has to be for Jason Macdonald and Yushin Okami. Macdonald opened as a (-105) favorite and is currently a (+200) underdog! That’s a hell of a jump. Okami was slated to start at (-135) but has since come all the way up to (-260). 5dimes seems to have really dropped the ball on the opening line of this bout.
- 5Dimes seems to be keeping their prices up for the main bout. Silva opened at a whopping (-300) with Franklin at (+220). The lines have dropped down, but they still are sporting the highest odds for Silva at (-225). However if you’re a Franklin fan for this bout, then 5dimes has the best odds available right now with Franklin listed at (+185).
Line changes at Sportsbook.com
- Sportsbook.com currently only has odds up for the main two bouts. In the Silva/Franklin match not much has changed there, but in the Vera/Sylvia match Sportsbook.com currently has the best odds available for betting on Brandon Vera at (-175). Compare this with most other books which have -200, -185 and -190. It might not seem like much, but every little bit helps over the long haul.
Line changes at BetUS.com
- BetUS.com just got their odds up for UFC 77. They haven’t moved enough to comment on yet. They currently have the best odds available for Kalib Starnes at (-145) and also for Yushin Okami at (-240)
I’m sure the odds will move a bit more before the fight. Most of the casual betting money will come in the day of the fight and this will cause the odds on every fight to jump around. Fortunately for us, unlike horse racing in sports betting if you get in on a good line, you get to keep that good line. Those guys that dawdle around with the ponies are nuts if you ask me.
UFC 77 odds now posted
October 2, 2007
UFC 77 odds are out at most online sportsbooks. As I said before, my internet connection was all messed up, but it’s back in working order now, so I’ll be posting much more frequently. UFC 77 has a few very interesting fights, and it’s going to be tough to gauge public opinion for this event, due to the amount of underdogs that triumphed at UFC 76.
UFC 76 problem with posting
September 24, 2007
Well I just realized it but my UFC 76 picks post was never published. My internet connection has been absolute crap for the past two weeks, and I’m pretty sure that was the problem. It was a shame too, because I did very well with UFC 76. It was the perfect night for an underdog bettor like myself. I hope everyone did well, and took the book’s money.
Everything should be back to normal on Wednesday. I’m going to get more posts going each week as well…
UFC Fight Night 11 picks from around the web…
September 18, 2007
UFC Fight Night 11 kicks off tomorrow night on Spike TV at 9PM ET. I poked around the web today and jotted down a couple of the fight predictions for ya…
If you haven’t seen it yet, here are the UFC Fight Night 11 odds
These picks are all straight up and involve no odds. Feel free to post your picks in the comments. I’d love to hear what everyone’s thinking.
Sam Caplan of MMAJunkie.com
- Florian over Thomas in a decision
- Martin over Leben in a 1st round KO
- Diaz over Assuncao via submission
- Sell over Quarry via TKO in the 2nd round
Jesse Holland of UFCMania.com
- Florian over Thomas by decision
- Leben over Martin via TKO
- Diaz over Assuncao via decision
- Quarry over Sell via TKO
Justin of MMA betting blog (mine against the spread)
- I’ve gone over this card for the past 5-6 hours and I honestly think the underdog in each bout presents some very good value. This is very rare for me. I have never bet every fight before, but I guess there’s a first for everything. $50 is 1/2 of a unit for me. So a regular bet would be $100 for me.
- Hironaka +180 at Bodog ($50 to win $90)
- Leben +170 at BetUS.com ($50 to win $85 )
- Sell +200 at Bodog ($50 to win $100)
- Thomas +135 at Bodog ($50 to win $67.50)
UFC 76 odds from Bodog and BetUS
September 17, 2007
UFC 76 is coming up this weekend, September 22nd at the Honda Center in California. The event should start around 10 PM and is on PPV. If you don’t want to order it, your local BW-3 will be showing it…
I’ll have my picks up later this week, as well as some analysis from around the MMA world.
UFC 76 odds
- Chuck Liddell (-450) vs. Keith Jardine (+300) (odds at Bodog )
- Chuck Liddell (-350) vs. Keith Jardine (+270) (odds at BetUS.com)
- Tyson Griffin (-150) vs. Thiago Tavares (+120) (odds at Bodog )
- Tyson Griffin (-160) vs. Thiago Tavares (+135) (odds at BetUS.com)
- Jon Fitch (-115) vs. Diego Sanchez (-115) (odds at Bodog )
- Jon Fitch(-130) vs. Diego Sanchez (+100) (odds at BetUS.com)
- Mauricio Rua (-325) vs. Forrest Griffin (+250) (odds at Bodog )
- Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Forrest Griffin (+270) (odds at BetUS.com)
UFC Fight night odds
September 16, 2007
UFC Fight Night odds are up at a few online sportsbooks. Here are the best lines we’ve found. Fight Night is scheduled for September 19th at 9PM.
Thiago Alves (-220) vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (+180) at Bodog
Nate Quarry (-260) vs. Pete Sell (+200) at Bodog
Terry Martin (-210) vs. Chris Leben (+170) at Bodog
Kenny Florian (-165) vs. Din Thomas (+135) at Bodog
Tyson Griffin (-150) vs. Thiago Tavares (+120) at Bodog
UFC 75 picks
September 6, 2007
Well the time has come for UFC 75. I’m very excited to see Rampage and Henderson go at it, and I really think there’s gonna be some gems on this card.
UFC 75 - Saturday, September 8th at 2PM
Anthony Torres (-115) vs. Jess Liaudin (-115)
- There seems to be a large amount of people betting on Liaudin in this bout. For a fight that’s not very popular, it strikes me as a weird spot for so many people to be backing someone at -115. Torres looks to be the play in this situation.
My bet : 2.3 units to win 2 units on Torres at -115 (odds at Bodog )
Naoyuki Kotani (-200) vs. Dennis Siver (+160)
- This is a great spot for Kotani, and I really think he is way undervalued in this bout. I was figuring this line to be about -250 or more. This is a good play and a great value play all in one.
My bet : 6 Units on Kotani to win 3 units at -200 (odds at Bodog )
Cheick Kongo (+300) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (-450)
- Kongo is an amazing striker, and at +300 I have to make a play on him. When someone is great at striking, and they are a big underdog, you are getting good value due to the chance that they win with one shot
My bet : One half of a unit (.5) at +300 on Kongo (odds at Bodog )
Other thoughts
- I like Henderson in the big bout, but I probably wont bet on that fight
- This card was a bit tougher to gauge due to the fact that it was so close to the last fight, and there isn’t much talk going on about the event.
- This event being on Spike TV should bring a bunch of new viewers to the UFC.
You can bet these fights at Bodog and BetUS.com.
Here’s to this event going much better for us than the last. Post your comments and your picks in the comments…
-Justin
The aftermath of UFC 74
August 26, 2007
I’m the first person to admit when I messed up. Last night, I definitely messed up. The total damage for the night was 0-3 and -11.2 units. When I lose bets, I always make sure that I at least learn something from the loss, otherwise it’s bound to happen again. I’ll go over a few of my thoughts from the night.
UFC 74 picks
August 23, 2007
I’ve been digging through the UFC messageboards and blogs all week looking to find the public’s opinion on Saturday’s UFC 74 fights. After many hours of research, I’ve narrowed down the field and made my picks for the event. In case you don’t understand my betting style, you should check out my MMA betting strategy. Without further delay, here’s what I’m betting on UFC 74.
Randy Couture (-105) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-125)
- This is the main bout of the night, so it’s getting most of the attention from hardcore UFC fans, as well as passive fans. From all the research I’ve done this week, Gonzaga is getting most of the action. This is partially due to his name, and also because he pulled off a big win last time out and most bettors are scared to bet against him again. Gonzaga is the favorite in this matchup at -125. Usually in sports when the underdog is getting more attention than the favorite, it usually is a great situation to bet on the favorite. I believe this is one of those situations.
My bet : I’m betting 3+ Units on Gonzaga to win 3 Units at -125 at Bodog
Kendall Grove (-240) vs. Patrick Cote (+190)
- This might be my favorite matchup of the night. Grove is a very underrated fighter, who the public seems to be looking over in this bout. I’ve seen a large amount of people backing Cote in this fight as a +190 underdog because they feel Cote is actually better than Grove. I’ve been following Grove for the last few months and the reports I’m reading have been very promising about his improvements. I think there’s too much interest out there in Cote right now from the public as a +190 underdog.
My bet : 7.2 Units on Grove at -240 to win 3 Units at BetUS.com
Georges St. Pierre (-280) vs. Josh Koscheck (+220)
- I told myself I was going to lay off this bout, but being the degenerate that I am, I found some good evidence to make a bet. More than likely, St Pierre will win this fight. However in sports betting when you see good value you MUST play it, because over time you will profit from betting on the value plays. In this situation Koscheck is a value play for me. I think there are enough questions about St. Pierre’s ability to defend Koscheck on the ground to warrant a small wager on Josh.
My bet : 1 Unit to win 2.2 Units on Josh Koscheck at +220 at BetUS.com
I will be passing on the other bouts for now. If I decide to add some wagers, they will be added to this post. Good luck everyone with your wagers. Feel free to leave some comments about your picks…
Bet these fights at Bodog and BetUS.com
-Justin
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