UFC 90: Josh Koscheck vs. Thiago Alves Prediction
October 19, 2008
Josh Koscheck vs. Thiago Alves
Josh Koscheck, much like Drew McFedries, stepped up on short notice as a replacement for the injured Diego Sanchez. He is set to meet Thiago “Pitbull” Alves, a well rounded fighter who is riding the momentum of a shocking TKO victories over top contender Karo “The Heat” Parisyan and former champion Matt Hughes.
Alves, who has catapulted himself to the top tier of contenders at Welterweight with his recent shocking upsets, is an extremely potent Muay Thai striker with a lot of knockout power in his punches and deadly knee strikes. His gameplan will definitely be to make Koscheck pay for his takedown attempts with hard shots from distance, and to sprawl his way into the clinch where he can dole out punishment with his nightmare-inducing knee strikes.
Whether he will be able to implement this gameplan is up in the air, as his opponent is an extremely dangerous and well-rounded fighter with near-unstoppable takedowns and an uncanny ability to maintain dominant position. Years ago, during his stint on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, calling Josh Koscheck well-rounded would have brought a chorus of riotous laughter from anyone familiar with the sport. Remembered by many as Josh “The Blanket” Koscheck for his underwhelming lay and pray offense, Koscheck has improved leaps and bounds in the ensuing years and can now be safely considered a competent striker. Clearly, he is still not on the same level as someone like Alves, but long gone are the days when Koscheck was completely helpless on his feet, thanks to his training at American Kickboxing Academy.
His development as a fighter will prove to be his saving grace, as his striking should be just good enough to keep Alves at bay long enough for him to secure the inevitable takedown. From there, Alves is the fish out of water, and Koscheck should be able to hold him down and keep him in trouble with ground and pound.
Rinse and repeat 2 more times, and you have a lopsided unanimous decision victory for Koscheck.
UFC 90: Sean Sherk vs. Tyson Griffin Prediction
October 19, 2008
Sean Sherk vs. Tyson Griffin
Tyson Griffin, one of UFC’s hottest young prospects at 155 pounds, will be looking to assert himself as a top contender to BJ Penn’s title in what is arguably UFC’s most stacked division when he comes up against powerhouse Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk. For his part, Sherk is hungry to restore some of the prestige he lost in his recent dismantling by BJ Penn.
Stylistically, this is an interesting matchup. Both men are powerful, explosive wrestlers who will be looking to take each other down and control the fight. Neither man has very dangerous standup, so I would definitely expect this to look a good bit like an amateur wrestling match. The question, then, is whether or not Griffin’s youth and energy will be enough to surmount Sherk’s power and experience. I think Sherk will prove a tall task for Griffin in that regard.
Another factor to consider is pure desire. Now, clearly, Griffin wants to win this fight just like any other fighter. Considering how young he is, though, and his dangerous skill set, Griffin has a bright future in this sport regardless of whether or not he makes it past Sherk. Sherk, on the other hand, has his back up against the wall. After a humbling defeat in his title challenge, Sherk’s future prospects at a title shot are thin on the ground at this point. Add in a loss to a young fighter, and it very well might drive a nail into the coffin of Sherk’s title hopes for good.
That said, I see Sherk grinding this one out to a much needed win, getting the best of the wrestling exchanges and controlling the fight from the top on his way to a hard-fought unanimous decision win.
UFC 90: Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior Dos Santos Prediction
October 19, 2008
Fabricio Werdum vs. Junior Dos Santos
Relatively unknown Junior dos Santos is getting thrown to the wolves immediately in his UFC debut, being matched up with dangerous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Fabricio Werdum. Primarily a striker, dos Santos made a name for himself on much smaller shows, amassing an impressive 6-1 record. Werdum, though, is on a whole different level from dos Santos’ previous opponents, so the up and comer is going to have his hands full to say the least.
Fabricio Werdum, since his debut, has been one of the most accomplished grapplers ever to compete in MMA. With jiu jitsu credentials far beyond those of most other black belts, Werdum is a danger to anyone and everyone on the ground. In recent fights, though, he has also shown a propensity for striking that he lacked in his early bouts. With two TKOs over fellow black belt Gabriel Gonzaga and a shocking TKO stoppage of Brandon “The Truth” Vera in his last fight, Werdum is showing progress toward becoming a much more complete fighter.
This, clearly, does not bode well at all for his relatively inexperienced opponent. Dos Santos will have to chalk this one up to a learning experience, because he will be easily submitted by Werdum inside the very first round.
UFC 90: Thales Leites vs. Drew McFedries Prediction
October 19, 2008
Thales Leites vs. Drew McFedries
McFedries, who stepped up to replace Goran Reljic in this fight, will be looking to avenge his recent loss to the relatively unknown Mike Massenzio on Ultimate Fight Night. He will have a tough task on his hands in the form of Thales Leites, who is coming off an extremely controversial split-decision win against Nathan Marquardt in a fight where he was largely dominated but pulled ahead on points thanks to questionable deductions for fouls.
McFedries is an accomplished striker, with a majority of his wins coming by way of KO or TKO. His career up to now, though, has been an up and down ride. His biggest win is an underwhelming victory over journeyman Alessio Sakara, and he has suffered defeat against more than one lesser opponent. The biggest weakness in McFedries’ game, and the biggest impediment to his success, is without a doubt his submission defense. He was submitted by Massenzio in his last fight, and also fell victim to an arm triangle choke from Martin Kampmann.
Unfortunately for “Massacre” McFedries, Thales Leites has an extremely dangerous submission attack, and has garnered three wins by arm triangle choke alone. While striking is not his strong suit, he should be able to hold off McFedries well enough to set up a takedown, which he should have no problem capitalizing on.
Leites by submission early in the second round.
Info for UFC 89: Leben vs Bisping
October 14, 2008
Fight Odds & Betting Lines
UFC 89 Fight Card
Pat’s Expert Predictions
Detailed Predictions
Betting Advice
Fighter Profiles
- Micahel Bisping
- Chris Leben
- Brandon Vera
- Keith Jardine
- Marcus Davis
- Paul Kelly
- Akihiro Gono
- Dan Hardy
- Paul Taylor
- Chris Lytle
- Luiz Cane
- Rameau Sokoudjou
- Sam Stout
- Terry Etim
- Shane Carwin
- Neil Wain
- Jess Liaudin
- David Bielkheden
UFC 89: Fight Predictions
October 13, 2008
For the main event we have Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben page
Brandon Vera vs. Keith Jardine
Brandon “The Truth” Vera (9-2) and Keith “The Dean Of Mean” Jardine (13-5-1) are set to face each other in a fight where both men will be trying to establish themselves as top contenders at 205 pounds and get back on track after disappointing performances.
- For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Vera vs. Jardine prediction
Pats Prediction: Jardine is definitely the better wrestler of the two, but Vera has vastly superior jiu jitsu and is a legitimate threat to submit off his back. Once again, I would give the slight advantage to Vera, who should be able to capitalize on these small advantages to score a unanimous decision win. - Vera vs. Jardine odds
Marcus Davis vs. Paul Kelly
Marcus “The Irish Hand Grenade” Davis (14-4) is set to make his fifth consecutive UFC appearance in the U.K. against Paul “Tellys” Kelly (7-0) on his home turf. Even though Kelly has the home field advantage, it should not play much to his gain, considering Davis is very comfortable in the U.K., winning three of his last four fights there.
- For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Davis vs Kelly prediction.
Pats Prediction: The problem here is Kelly will try to stand with Davis and exchange shots over a much higher caliber striker. Davis never lets the crowd down and will bring the fight right to Kelly. Davis will be looking to deliver a devastating KO and will be successful with a second round knock out. Davis vs Kelly odds
Chris Lytle vs. Paul taylor
Chris “Lights Out” Lytle (35-16-4) will meet up with another Englishmen on the fight card in Paul Taylor (9-3-1)
- For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Lytle vs Taylor prediction
Pats Prediction: I see that Lytle’s experience and depth will be the difference here and will out strike Taylor to a third round TKO. - Lytle vs Taylor odds
Rameau Sokoudjou vs. Luiz Cane
This will be a war between two talented light heavyweights that should not go the distance. This is a tough one to call, as one of them will be knocked out and it could go either way.
- For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Sokoudjou vs Cane prediction
Pats Prediction: I feel Sokoudjou is stronger than Cane, and will show the fans and the UFC why he was brought here. This fight will not go to the ground and will end with Sokoudjou landing too many clean punches and kicks, ending with a secound round TKO. - Sokoudjou vs Cane odds
Quick Picks
- Akihiro Gono over Dan Hardy via unanimous decision
- Shane Carwin over Neil Wain via first round KO
- Jess Liaudin over David Bielkheden via armbar in round two
- Sam Stout over Terry Etim via KO in round three
UFC 89: Undercard betting info
October 13, 2008
Luckily, the undercard of the show provides a way to milk a little bit of money out of UFC 89 thanks to some mismatches and the joys of parlay betting. Lines are not yet set for Paul Taylor vs. Chris Lytle or Paul Kelly vs. Marcus Davis, but we can safely assume that Lytle and Kelly will be favorites. Both are pretty safe bets, as Davis facing someone who will stand and trade with him, which is foolish in the extreme, and Lytle is far more well rounded and experienced than his opponent. Parlaying these two together, along with either Bisping, Jardine, or both, could provide a pretty substantial payout for a relatively small investment.
It’s hard to say how many of the fights will be available for wagers, but just in case, Per Eklund, Sam Stout, and Akihiro Gono would be another decent parlay regardless of lines, or any of the fighters might be nice to add to an existing parlay to sweeten up the payoff without putting your chances in too much danger. The biggest fight to avoid, in my opinion, is Sokoudjou vs. Luiz Cane. Cane has proven he is a well rounded guy with some serious punching power. Sokoudjou looked insane in PRIDE, destroying top 5 fighters left and right, but was brutally handled by Machida. As a gambler, I’m in wait-and-see mode on Sokoudjou. I’m reticent to put any money on him until he proves he isn’t another Cro Cop.
So basically, to maximize your money on this show, I’d recommend only a few straight up wagers, and instead going with 2 fairly safe parlays. This isn’t the kind of show where you are going to make a fortune, but it’s still more than possible to turn a decent profit.
Visit our predictions page for betting advice on UFC 89.
UFC 89: Betting info
October 13, 2008
UFC 89, being broadcast for free on Spike TV on October 18 from Birmingham England, is not exactly a stacked card. Headlined by hometown favorite Michael “The Count” Bisping taking on infamous TUF also-ran Chris “The Crippler” Leben, the card is loaded with relatively unknown British fighters in order to appeal to the local market. Unfortunately for betters, the lines posted so far don’t bode well for huge upset payfalls. In the Main Event, Bisping is understandably a favorite over Leben. Bisping is definitely the better technical striker and wrestler, and should be able to control the pace of the fight, securing takedowns and doling out some ground and pound. Of course, Leben has proven over and over again that he has the power to win a fight with one shot. Even so, at around +150, the odds aren’t long enough to justify putting a bet down on him in hopes of his puncher’s chance coming to fruition.
The other big headlining bout is also fairly unattractive for wagering. Brandon Vera, now fighting at Light Heavyweight after a loss to Tim Sylvia and a string of underwhelming performances, is set to face “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine, who will be trying to regain some of the momentum he lost when Wanderlei Silva demolished him in their recent bout. Vera, the favorite at around -150, is definitely the better rounded of the two fighters. A versatile and powerful Muay Thai fighter, Vera also trains under world-renowned grappling coach Lloyd Irvin, so he is a threat from any position. Jardine is also a competent, versatile striker, but his chin is somewhat suspect, as was evidenced by his fights with Silva and Houston Alexander. I think Vera should easily be able to control this fight, and if anyone is going to suffer a flash knockout it’s likely to be Jardine, so even a small bet on the underdog is probably unwarranted.
Visit our Bisping vs. Leben and Vera vs. Jardine predictions page for more help.
UFC 89: Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben Prediction
October 12, 2008
Michael Bisping vs. Chris Leben
The main event features two Ultimate Fighter alumni in also-ran Chris Leben and winner Michael Bisping (-215 Bisping/+175 Leben). If nothing else, Bisping will have the energy of the crowd behind him, as he is easily the most popular British fighter in the world.
Chris Leben, still mostly remembered for peeing in people’s beds, punching out doors, getting drunk, and crying, is nevertheless a formidable opponent at 185 pounds. A puncher with an iron chin and one punch knockout power in his hands, Leben has carved out a niche for himself in the Middleweight division despite his utter lack of a ground game. Leben’s gameplan in this fight will be predictable, for sure: taking the fight to Bisping, getting up in his face and, in Leben’s words, “throwing some bolos”.
Unfortunately for Leben, Bisping is a fairly formidable striker himself. While he lacks Leben’s explosive power, he is definitely the quicker and more technical of the two fighters on his feet. Originally a light heavyweight, Bisping dropped to 185, a much more natural weight for him, after a controversial split decision loss to current Light Heavyweight #1 contender Rashad Evans. No longer giving up a substantial amount of weight and power to his opponents, Bisping is poised to make a serious run at title contention in the Middleweight division.
To me, while both men are competent strikers, their ground games will be the determining factor in this fight. Leben is not a total submission novice, but is not a huge threat to score a submission from his guard. Bisping probably has a better bottom game than Leben does, but more importantly, he has a massive advantage in wrestling.
I see that being the deciding factor in this fight. While it’s possible Bisping could win a stand up war with Leben, it is a risky proposition, and Bisping would be better served to take Leben down and attempt to control the fight from the top.
That’s how I see the fight playing out, with Bisping on top of Leben doling out punishment on his way to a lopsided unanimous decision.
More details on this event can be found at our UFC 89 predictions page or for odds visit the UFC 89 odds page.
UFC 89: Brandon Vera vs. Keith Jardine Prediction
October 12, 2008
Keith Jardine vs. Brandon Vera
Brandon “The Truth” Vera (9-2) and Keith “The Dean Of Mean” Jardine (13-5-1) are set to face each other (-185 Bisping/ +155 Leben) in a fight where both men will be trying to establish themselves as top contenders at 205 pounds and get back on track after disappointing performances.
Keith Jardine, a former contestant on The Ultimate Fighter, has had an extremely up and down career inside the Octagon. He has some very good wins, including a decision victory over Wilson Gouveia, a three round dismantling of former Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck Liddell, and a complete domination of current champion Forrest Griffin. Mixed in with those quality wins, however, are an embarassing decision loss to journeyman Stephan Bonner, and two knockout losses in the first minute of fights, against Wanderlei Silva and middle of the road striker Houston Alexander. Jardine’s mixed results can probably be chalked up to his aggressiveness. Jardine has a tendency to bullrush his opponents. Sometimes, like in his fight with Forrest Griffin, it pays off with a spectacular early stoppage. More often, though, he just walks chin-first into his own destruction.
Vera, for his part, was once considered a top young prospect at both 205 pounds and heavyweight. An accomplished Muay Thai fighter who also trains with submission guru Lloyd Irvin, Vera is a dangerous, well-rounded fighter with all the tools to succeed, especially in the Light Heavyweight division. The biggest question about Vera is definitely his motivation and dedication to training. After a series of impressive wins in the Heavyweight Division, Vera lost a lackluster decision to Tim Sylvia and then got knocked out by Fabricio Werdum, who is not at all known for his striking, in the first round. Afterward, Vera dropped to Light Heavyweight, where he won an uninspiring unanimous decision against the relatively unknown Reese Andy.
Both men have a lot to prove in this fight, clearly. In recent interviews, Vera claims to have taken his training much more seriously for this fight than any of his previous UFC bouts. In the end, I think this fight will come down to which man is more well rounded. Jardine may have slightly more punching power, but Vera is definitely the more technical and versatile striker. Factor in Jardine’s questionable chin, and I would give the advantage to Vera. Jardine is definitely the better wrestler of the two, but Vera has vastly superior jiu jitsu and is a legitimate threat to submit off his back.
Once again, I would give the slight advantage to Vera, who should be able to capitalize on these small advantages to score a unanimous decision win.
More details on this event can be found at our UFC 89 predictions page or for odds visit the UFC 89 odds page.