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UFC Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami

Odds:  (-625 Silva / +425 Okami )

Betting Pick:  Okami

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In the main event of the evening, long-time top contender Yushin “Thunder” Okami gets his long-awaited shot at Middleweight champion Anderson “Spider” Silva. Silva is obviously the most dominant champion in the entire sport, riding a record-breaking string of title defenses, but Okami is the sort of fighter who is stylistically capable of putting him at a disadvantage. If there is a hole in Silva’s game it is his takedown defense, and Okami is more than capable of testing his wrestling and putting him on his back like Chael Sonnen did. Obviously, Silva’s striking is utterly devastating, but the last thing he wants is another fight like the one he had against Chael Sonnen, where he was physically dominated for four and a half rounds.

Yushin Okami has been considered one of the top Middleweight contenders for a few years now, but a variety of issues have kept him from recieving his rightful shot at the title. In his last fight, Okami completely dominated highly-regarded opponent Nate “The Great” Marquardt, proving emphatically that he is ready for a shot at Silva. Okami’s offense is extremely versatile. He is a great wrestler with dominant takedowns and punishing ground and pound, but he also has fairly heavy-handed and technical boxing. Against Silva that is going to be huge, because he has the wrestling to force Silva off his game and enough boxing that he can hold his own, maybe even surprise Silva with some jabs, and do enough standing that he doesn’t have to telegraph his takedowns. Silva has shown time and again that he can be taken down and controlled. What makes Okami such a dangerous opponent for Silva is that he can not only put Silva on his back, he can defend effectively against submissions inside Silva’s guard.

Anderson Silva’s striking would be impossible to overhype. His technique is flawless, he has knockout power with punches, kicks, and knees, and he is unparalleled at controlling opponents in the clinch and destroying them. What makes Silva so dangerous is that he has solid technique and power, but he punctuates his offense with creative strikes that seem to come out of nowhere and are extremely difficult to defend against. On the feet, Silva can be hit, but he will eventually destroy anyone who can’t force a fight to the ground. The only hole in Silva’s game is his takedown defense and escapes on the ground. Any competent wrestler, a billing Okami certainly fits, is not going to have a huge amount of trouble securing takedowns. Off his back, Silva has dangerous submissions, but his ability to fight for position and escape from bottom position is lacking.

Silva is the most dominant Middleweight of all time, but I think Okami is a terrible matchup for him. Chael Sonnen, who Okami trains with, not only planted Silva on his back for the vast majority of the fight and destroyed him with ground and pound, he actually got a lot of fairly hard shots in on the feet by taking the fight to Silva. Okami is more than capable of executing the same game plan, with his stiff jabs and great wrestling. The only real difference is that, unlike Sonnen, Okami has solid submission defense to round out his game. I think this fight has all the makings of an upset, and expect Okami to control the fight with takedowns and ground and pound for the unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Yushin “Thunder” Okami via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

Odds:  (-280 Rua /+220 Griffin )

Betting Pick:  Rua

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The semi-main event is a highly anticipated rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The first time these two met, Griffin shocked the world by controlling a large portion of the action and eventually forcing Shogun to submit to a rear naked choke. Shogun has looked more like his old self since then, despite a loss to Jon Jones in his last outing. This has all the makings of a very competitive bout, pitting Shogun’s dominant striking against Griffin’s well-rounded and underrated game.

Forrest Griffin is a huge success story, having parlayed a spot on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter all the way to a reign as Light Heavyweight champion. What is spectacular about Griffin is that, on paper, he doesn’t seem to have that impressive a skill set. His boxing is solid but not hugely powerful and his wrestling is solid but hardly world-class. Griffin has carved out his success through sheer will. Griffin has a ton of heart, great cardio, and a fairly solid chin. He also has a very underrated ground game, with relatively effective submissions and good positioning. Griffin can’t take a fight over with his offense consistently, but he can compete anywhere a fight goes and he never stops coming forward, which makes him an extremely dangerous opponent.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has been one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world for years. His striking is superlative, with very powerful boxing, dangerous kicks, and crushing Muay Thai in the clinch. On the ground, he has good submissions, but his takedown defense is not very good and he is not very effective working off his back. Against Griffin he is going to want to try and keep this fight standing, because Griffin always submitted him once and is the larger and stronger fighter.

This is a tough match to call. There is no question that Shogun is the superior striker, with better technique and more knockout power. Griffin is the better wrestler, and showed in their last fight that he can take Shogun down and control him on the ground. In the end, though, I think Shogun will even the score with Griffin. Griffin likes to stand and trade, and tends to throw caution to the wind, and I don’t think he has enough offense to stop an injury-free Shogun. I think Shogun will handily win the striking exchanges and do enough to earn a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Noguera

Odds:  (-250 Schaub /+195 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Schaub

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, living legend Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira will square off against rising star Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub. Nogueira is a legend in the sport who has fought most of the best Heavyweights in the world, but years of brutal battles seem to have finally taken their toll on him physically. Schaub, for his part, is a ridiculous physical specimen, but lacks Nogueira’s experience. If Schaub wins, this very well might be the last time Nogueira ever fights in UFC, so if he wants to keep hold of his career, Nogueira is going to need to find a way to force this fight to the ground and work for submissions.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is easily one of the most legendary Heavyweights in the sport’s history. At his prime, Nogueira was renowned for his ability to weather storms before finding an opening and securing a submission. Now, though, it seems that all those brutal wars and all the years as a professional fighter have caught up with him. His submission skills are just as dangerous as they ever were, but he was never a prolific wrestler and his chin seems to have deteriorated. His boxing is fairly technically solid, but he has basically zero knockout power. More importantly, he has degenerating defense and can’t force fights to the ground. Against Schaub he might even need to resort to pulling guard just to avoid standing in front of power punches.

Brendan Schaub is one of the rising stars of the Heavyweight division. A massive, powerful Heavyweight with a huge surplus of punching power and solid wrestling, Schaub has all the tools to make it all the way to the top. The only question mark about Schaub is his chin, which was exploited by Roy Nelson in spectacular fashion, but against Nogueira he won’t have to worry about getting knocked out. Schaub’s strategy will be simple. He will try to deny Nogueira takedowns and overwhelm him with punches.

This is a horrible matchup for Nogueira. Schaub is not only significantly larger and stronger, he is a good enough wrestler to keep Nogueira from taking him down. On the feet, Nogueira has nothing for Schaub, and eventually Schaub will start connecting with power punches. Nogueira will only be able to take so many before he inevitably succumbs. Schaub by T/KO.

Prediction:  Brendan Schaub via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza

Odds:  (+250 Pearson /-375 Barboza )

Betting Pick:  Barboza

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In what has the makings of a very competitive Lightweight bout, prolific Brazilian striker Edson Barboza Junior will put his unblemished record on the line against well-rounded Brit Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson. Barboza has blazed his way to an 8-0 professional record with truly devastating striking, but Pearson is very versatile and has a good ground game that could really test Barboza. Barboza may be better at striking than Pearson is at anything, but if Pearson can use wrestling and ground control to take Barboza off his game he could be well-positioned to add the first blemish to Barboza’s record.

Ross Pearson, a talented Brit who earned a spot in the UFC by winning the Lightweight division of the US vs. UK edition of The Ultimate Fighter, has a very well-rounded game. He is a decent boxer with some power in his hands, and his wrestling and submissions are both quite solid. Against Barboza his offensive grappling is going to be very important, because Barboza is the superior striker in terms of both technique and power. If Pearson wants to end Barboza’s winning streak, he is going to need to put him on his back early and often and score points from the top while working for submissions. In a standup fight he will inevitably be overwhelmed.

Edson Barboza has looked very impressive in winning the first eight bouts of his professional career. In his last fight, he stepped up in competition against Anthony Njokuani and handled him easily, winning by unanimous decision. Pearson represents another step up for him, but Barboza has the tools to succeed at a high level in Mixed Martial Arts. His striking is superlative, and he seems to have an effective ground game as well. His wrestling is a question mark, but he does have some submission prowess to go along with his dynamic striking. Against Pearson, or any other opponent really, he is going to want to keep this fight standing where he can exploit his advantage in power and technique.

Pearson is a step up for Barboza, but I think the Brazilian is ready. Pearson’s wrestling isn’t dominant enough that he is going to completely take over the fight, and Barboza is just too good standing. Barboza by T/KO.

Prediction:  Edson Barboza via first round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

Current UFC 134 Betting Odds- On August 27, 2011, UFC will hold their first live event from Rio de Janiero, Brazil. The featured bout will pit the UFC Middleweight champion, Brazil’s own Anderson “Spider” Silva, against long-suffering top contender Yushin “Thunder” Okami. Silva has been tearing through the division for years, but Okami has made a very strong case for being the top contender. For a variety of reasons, though, Okami has seen his title shot pushed back time after time, and now he has the opportunity to become UFC’s first Japanese-born champion. Silva’s striking and jiu-jitsu are deadly, but he has shown some trouble dealing with dominant wrestlers who have some striking prowess, so Okami is going to be one of his toughest challenges yet. Okami can box very effectively and has dominant takedowns and positional control. If he can exploit Silva’s subpar takedown defense and avoid leaving himself exposed for any submissions like Chael Sonnen did, Okami might be in a perfect position to pull off the upset and capitalize on his long sought-after title shot.

Main Event:

Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami

Bodog.com Odds

• Silva     (-625)
• Okami  (+425)

Betonline.com Odds

• Silva     (-450)
• Okami  (+325)

Mauiricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

Bodog.com Odds

• Rua       (-280)
• Griffin  (+220)

Betonline.com Odds

• Rua      (-220)
• Griffin  (+180)

Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Bodog.com Odds

• Schaub      (-250)
• Nogueira  (+195)

Betonline.com Odds

• Schaub     (-210)
• Nogueira  (+170)

Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza

Bodog.com Odds

• Pearson   (+250)
• Barboza   (-325)

Betonline.com Odds

• Pearson  (+210)
• Barboza  (-270)

Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov

Bodog.com Odds

• Cane          (-210)
• Nedkov    (+170)

Betonline.com Odds

• Cane
• Nedkov

Preliminary Card:

Thiago Tavares vs. Spencer Fisher

Bodog.com Odds

• Tavares  (-210)
• Fisher     (+170)

Luis Ramos vs. Erick Silva

Bodog.com Odds

• Ramos   (+215)
• Silva       (-275)

Paulo Thiago vs. David Mitchell

Bodog.com Odds

• Thiago        (-450)
• Mitchell     (+325)

Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller

Bodog.com Odds

• Palhares   (-315)
• Miller        (+245)

Yuri Alcantara vs. Felipe Arantes

Bodog.com Odds

• Alcantara   (-500)
• Arantes       (+350)

Yves Jabouin vs. Ian Loveland

Bodog.com Odds

• Jabouin     (+165)
• Loveland  (-215)

UFC Rio brings the Brazilian fans many of its heroes. The Co-Main event features Mauricio Rua (19-5) up against Forrest Griffin (18-6) to try and even the score. Also Big Nog (32-6-1-1) againstfast rising star Brendan Schaub (8-1), Edson Barboza (8-0) vs. Ross Pearson (12-4), and Luiz Cane (11-3-1) taking on Stanislav Nedkov (11-0). 

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 134 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And if you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.