UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Phil Davis

Odds:  (+260 Nogueira /-340 Davis )

Betting Pick:  DAVIS

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In the main event of the evening, PRIDE veteran Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira, also known as Little Nog, will face a stiff challenge in the form of undefeated prospect Phil Davis. Davis is a young and promising fighter, but Little Nog represents a big step up in competition for him. Nogueira is very versatile and experienced as well, in spite of his recent disappointing performances, so he is a good test of just how ready Davis is to step into the deep end of the Light Heavyweight division.

Phil Davis is one of the most exciting up and coming prospects at 205 pounds. Davis seems to be the complete package so far, with dominant wrestling, heavy hands, and very good submissions. He is physically very strong, but he also has a lot of technique both standing and on the ground to go with his physical gifts. The only question is how he will handle a top 205 pounder, since he has fought mainly lesser opponents up until now.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who was once one of PRIDE’s top Light Heavyweights, has since fallen off a bit. He is an extremely technically proficient boxer, and he has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the world at Light Heavyweight, so offensively he is a very dangerous fighter. His problem since coming to the UFC has been dealing with physically superior fighters and dominant wrestlers. Davis is both, so unless Nogueira wants to continue his slide he is going to have to figure out a way to deal with a stronger fighter and work off his back.

I think that Nogueira is going to have his hands full in this one. In his last fight, he was outwrestled easily and given a lot of trouble on the feet by Ryan Bader. Davis is stylistically similar to Bader, but he is a superior athlete with more devastating punching and probably better wrestling as well. I think Nogueira is going to have to fight defensively on his feet to avoid Davis’ power, and he won’t be able to stop Davis from taking him down at will. Nogueira is dangerous off his back, but Davis has good jiu-jitsu and is a beast from top position, so it is going to be hard for Little Nog to assert himself off his back. I think Davis will control this one bell to bell and earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis via Unanimous Decision.

To add some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Dan Hardy vs. Anthony Johnson

Odds:  (+150 Hardy /-180 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  HARDY

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In the semi-main event, British striker Dan Hardy will look to recover from two straight disappointing losses against the returning Anthony “Rumble” Johnson, who has been out of action for over a year with a meniscus tear. Both of these guys are coming off losses, so this is an important fight for both of their careers. Despite his recent losses, Hardy is an extremely formidable striker, but Johnson is a very dangerous and athletic fighter as long as the injury hasn’t hampered him too much.

Anthony Johnson looked like he was on his way to the top early in his UFC career, but he hit the brick wall in his last fight against Josh Koscheck, where he was handled thoroughly and choked out in the second round. Even though he didn’t handle the step up in competition that well, he still has serious knockout power in his hands and legs, a ton of speed and accuracy, and a lot of physical strength and size. Still, he enters this fight surrounded by question marks. For one thing, he has had a ton of problems making weight, and it is clear that he is trying to cut an unhealthy amount. Even if he does make weight, how much will that huge cut wear on him come fight time? Also, any time a fighter is out for over a year with a knee injury, there have to be questions about how well he is recovered and how much effect the ring rust is going to have.

Dan Hardy is an extremely formidable striker, although his last two fights have not gone well at all. First he was manhandled for five rounds by Georges St. Pierre, unable to mount any offense whatsoever, and then he was shocked by an upset knockout courtesy of Carlos Condit. Hardy doesn’t have much of an offensive grappling game, but he did show against GSP that his submission defense and escapes are pretty solid. Clearly Hardy’s best work is on the feet, where he is very good technically and also has a lot of power. There is no question he will want to stand and trade with Johnson.

This is an interesting matchup. Johnson is the bigger and stronger guy, but his ground game is still raw and he is coming off a long layoff. On the feet, Johnson has the power to test Hardy’s chin and then some, but Hardy is the far more technical and complete striker. This is a close fight on paper, but I have to give the edge to Hardy. Johnson’s huge weight cut and the long layoff are probably going to have an effect on his cardio, and I think Hardy will beat him to the punch more often than not on the feet. Hardy is good enough to survive a few takedowns, and as Johnson tires out I think Hardy will assert himself more and more in the striking exchanges and eventually catch Johnson with a big shot. Hardy by T/KO.

Prediction:  Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy via second round T/KO.

To add some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Welterweight bout:  Amir Sadollah vs. DaMarques Johnson

Odds:  (-260 Sadollah /+200 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  SADOLLAH

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In what has the makings of a very competitive and entertaining Welterweight bout, tough veteran DaMarques Johnson will square off with Ultimate Fighter winner Amir Sadollah. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets and also exploitable holes in their games, so this one very well could be a barn-burner.

Amir Sadollah, who had never fought as a professional before appearing on The Ultimate Fighter, shocked everyone by submitting heavy favorite CB Dolloway twice on his way to winning the show. Sadollah has very good submissions, and his Muay Thai seems to improve every time he fights. His problem is that he is hugely unimpressive physically, his wrestling is terrible, and he isn’t a very powerful striker. His technique is solid, but he lacks knockout power or even the power to substantially hurt anyone.

DaMarques Johnson has a very dangerous offensive skill set, with good punching, decent wrestling, and effective submissions. He can hurt guys, and finish fights, in a wide variety of ways. Johnson’s problem is that he is nowhere near as good defensively as he is offensively. His submission defense is questionable, he is prone to eating punches, and when he gets outwrestled he does not react well at all. As a result, he has lost a good number of fights in his career.

This is an interesting matchup. Johnson is more physically imposing, and more powerful in the standup, but Sadollah is slicker, more technical, and far better on the ground. I think Sadollah’s Muay Thai and ability to work in the clinch are going to help him stay in the fight on the feet, and when it hits the ground he should be able to capitalize on Johnson’s subpar submission defense. Sadollah by submission.

Prediction:  Amir Sadollah via second round rear naked choke. 

To add some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Aaron Simpson vs. Mario Miranda

Odds:  (-210 Simpson /+170 Miranda )

Betting Pick:  SIMPSON

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In what should be a competitive Middleweight affair, skilled wrestler Aaron “A-Train” Simpson takes on well-rounded competitor Mario Miranda. Both of these guys have had less than stellar results as of late, so this is an extremely important fight for both of them if they want to stay with the company. Despite their lack of success in recent outings, both of these guys are dangerous and have versatile skill sets, so they are both going to need to perform at their best to ensure some job security.

Mario Miranda is a very tough and well-rounded fighter who was undefeated as a professional before debuting in the UFC. Since then he has gone 1-2, but he put up a respectable showing in his last fight, taking top contender Demian Maia to the time limit before losing a one-sided decision. Miranda is a good striker with decent wrestling and solid jiu-jitsu, so he can hold his own. His chin isn’t rock solid, though, and Simpson is a big puncher, so he is going to need to be careful.

Aaron Simpson is a very tough wrestler and brawler. He’s dropped two fights in a row, but he is a tough guy who comes to bang every time. He likes to trade punches, but he also has very good takedowns and can rain down punishment from top position. His standup defense isn’t great and he is prone to wildness, but offensively he is a very dangerous guy.

Both of these guys are versatile and well-rounded, but I think that Simpson has the stylistic edge. Miranda has better submissions, but Simpson is the superior wrestler, so if this fight makes it to the ground Simpson is going to be the one dictating the pace and position, and Miranda is going to have to fight very defensively from his back. On the feet, Simpson is the more aggressive and powerful striker. Miranda is tough, and should be able to survive, but I think Simpson will control this one and earn the unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Aaron “A Train” Simpson via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

PASSWORD 455

Current UFC 129 Betting Odds - Live on Saturday, April 30, 2011 the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada will host UFC 129 . UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre (21-2) will put his belt on the line for a sixth time when he faces submission ace Jake Shields (26-4-1).  St-Pierre is coming off a five round domination over Josh Koscheck at UFC 124. While Shields earned his number one contender status after he defeated Martin Kampmann via split decision at UFC 121. With all the hype of a super fight between St-Pierre against Silva, I hope he doesn’t lose focus on Shields.  Shields better be working on his take down defense and is ready to give St-Pierre the best performance of his career. I’m excited to see how this fight plays out.

Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields

Bodog.com Odds

• St-Pierre  (-500)
• Shields      (+300)

Betus.com Odds

• St-Pierre  (-450)
• Shields      (+325)

Sportsinteraction.com Odds

• St-Pierre   (-500)
• Shields       (+300)

Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick

Bodog.com Odds

• Aldo             (-550)
• Hominick   (+350)

Betus.com Odds

• Aldo            (-600)
• Hominick  (+400)

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Bodog.com Odds

• Couture   (+250)
• Machida  (-325)

Betus.com Odds

• Couture   (+250)
• Machida  (-350)

Sportsinteraction.com Odds

• Couture   (+235)
• Machida  (-357)

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz

Bodog.com Odds

• Matyushenko  (-105)
• Brilz                     (-125)

Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek

Bodog.com Odds

• Henderson  (-140)
• Bocek             (+110)

Betus.com Odds

• Henderson   (-140)
• Bocek              (+110)

Sportsinteraction.com Odds

• Henderson   (-139)
• Bocek              (+100)

Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald

Bodog.com Odds

• Diaz              (-115)
• MacDonald   (-115)

Betus.com Odds

• Diaz                 (-105)
• MacDonald  (-125)

Jake Ellengerger vs. Sean Pierson

Bodog.com Odds

• Ellenberger  (-215) 
• Pierson          (+175)

Pablo Garza vs. Yves Jabouin

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Garza       (+140)
• Jabouin  (-170)

Daniel Roberts vs. Claude Patrick

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Roberts  (+125)
• Patrick   (-155)

Charlie Valencia vs. Ivan Menjivar

Bodog.com Odds

• Valencia   (+155)
• Menjivar   (-185)

Ryan Jensen vs. Jason MacDonald

Bodog.com Odds

• Jensen             (-135)
• MacDonald    (+105)

Kyle Watson vs. John Makdessi

Bodog.com Odds

• Watson        (+160)
• Makdessi    (-200)

The Co-Main event features UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo (18-1) up against tough Canadian Mark Hominick (20-8).  Also a battle between former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Randy “The Natural” Couture (19-10) taking on another former UFC LHW Champion Lyoto “The Dragon”  Machida (16-2). Along with Ben Henderson (12-2) vs. Mark Bocek (9-3) and “The Janitor” Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) vs. Jason Brilz (18-3-1).

Be sure to Check back with us closer to fight night and I will have updated UFC 129 Odds plus UFC 129 Fight Predictions.  And if you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.