UFC Welterweight bout:  Diego Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann

Odds:  (+105 Sanchez /-135 Kampmann )

Betting Pick:  Kampmann

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In the main event of the evening, former Ultimate Fighter winner Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez, recently returned to Welterweight, faces an extremely stiff challenge in the form of well-rounded Danish standout Martin Kampmann. Sanchez seemed to fit more naturally at 155, but after mixed results moved back up to Welterweight. Kampmann is one of the top guys in the division, though, so unless Diego wants some more mixed results he is going to need a stellar performance.

Martin Kampmann is one of the best-rounded fighters in the Welterweight division. He has very effective striking and excellent submissions, not to mention very underrated wrestling. Originally a Middleweight, Kampmann dropped down after being knocked out by Nate Marquardt. He has proven even more effective at 170 pounds, with a dynamic offensive skillset that few in the division have an answer for. He can be knocked out, but fortunately for him Sanchez doesn’t have the striking prowess to take advantage of that fact.

Sanchez, a long-time veteran who dominated his way through the original Ultimate Fighter, is recently back up to 170 pounds after a stint at Lightweight that didn’t go as swimmingly as he had hoped. Sanchez is a skilled wrestler and grappler with great cardio and a very aggressive style that is hard to deal with. His submissions are pretty good also. The big problem with Sanchez’s game is his awkward and largely ineffective boxing. His technique is sloppy, he doesn’t have much punching power, and he keeps his chin up in the air.

I don’t think Sanchez is going to find the going at welterweight any easier than he did last time around, especially against Kampmann. Kampmann is a vastly superior striker, and his wrestling is about the same as Sanchez’s but he is substantially bigger and stronger. Kampmann also has better submissions. Sanchez is a tough guy who is hard to finish, so he should stick around for the duration, but Kampmann should control this fight in every way and earn a lopsided decision win.

Prediction: Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  C.B. Dollaway vs. Mark Munoz

Odds:  (+170 Dollaway /-210 Munoz )

Betting Pick:  Munoz

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In the co main event, two skilled wrestlers will go at it as C.B. Dolloway squares off against Mark Munoz. Both of these guys have great wrestling backgrounds, and both have proven very successful in Mixed Martial Arts. The question is whether Dolloway can weather Munoz’s striking and get this one to the ground, or if Munoz will bruise Dolloway up and control the fight from the top.

Dolloway, who was considered a heavy favorite to win The Ultimate Fighter before submitting twice to identical Amir Sadollah armbars, has proven since his stint on the show that he belongs in the company. A skilled wrestler with good submissions and decent boxing, Dolloway has a great offensive skill set. The big hole in his game has always been his submission defense, but Munoz isn’t the kind of fighter capable of exploiting that.

Munoz, who also has an impressive NCAA wrestling resume, is a physically dominant fighter who has solid boxing with very heavy hands. He depends on his boxing game as much as he does his wrestling, but the fact remains that he is a great wrestler with effective shoot takedowns and trips from the clinch. He is also physically stronger than Dolloway, which could go a long way in the wrestling battle.

This is going to be a tough fight for Dolloway. He is the better submission grappler by far, but he is going to be outgunned on the feet and it is going to be difficult for him to wrestle down the bigger, stronger Munoz. Dolloway is a tough guy who is hard to finish, so he should hang around, but I think Munoz will outstrike him and bruise him up for a one-sided decision win.

Prediction: Mark Munoz via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Weidman

Odds:  (+200 Sakara /-260 Weidman )

Betting Pick:  Weidman

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In the third bout, undefeated Matt Serra student Chris Weidman makes his UFC debut against heavy-handed Italian veteran Alessio Sakara. Weidman has looked very solid and well-rounded going undefeated in his first four fights, but Sakara is a dangerous veteran who represents a big step up in competition for him. Will Weidman’s well-rounded game allow him to step up successfully, or will Sakara’s dynamic striking prove more than he can handle?

Weidman, undefeated so far in his 4 fight career, has looked very good so far, showing a complete offensive skill set. A Matt Serra student, Weidman clearly has effective submissions, but he has actually won more of his fights with his dangerous and powerful striking. Clearly he has the offensive tools to go far as a fighter, but he has yet to face any legitimate top-level competition, so the question is whether he will be able to handle the increased pressure and competition in the big show.

Sakara, a skilled veteran who trains out of American Top Team, is a very dangerous and effective striker. He doesn’t have much in the way of offensive grappling or wrestling, but his takedown and submission defense are serviceable. What he does have is great punches and kicks, great handspeed and accuracy, and a lot of power. He is also very tough and can absorb shots and keep coming forward.

This is a winnable fight for Weidman, if he can handle the pressure of his UFC debut well. He is going to be vastly superior to Sakara on the ground, and can probably hold his own in the standup too. I don’t think he will win the striking exchanges, but he is more than competent enough to keep himself in the fight, set up takedowns, and control this fight on the ground. Weidman by decision.

Prediction:  Chris Weidman via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight bout:  Joe Stevenson vs. Danny Castillo

Odds:  (-130 Stevenson /even Castillo )

Betting Pick:  Castillo

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In the opening bout of the evening, well-rounded WEC veteran Danny Castillo makes his first UFC appearance against talented former title challenger Joe “Daddy” Stevenson. Castillo has a versatile skill set and has only lost to top-level fighters, but Stevenson is a very serious competitor who has fought the best in the world at 155, so Castillo is going to have his hands full in this one.

Castillo, a long-time WEC veteran, is not getting an easy first fight in the Octagon. With the recent merger, the 155 division is so stacked that there really aren’t any easy fights left. Still, Castillo is equipped to handle the challenge, having spent the last few years fighting all of the best Lightweights WEC had to offer. Castillo’s offensive skill set is quite impressive. He has decent striking and wrestling, good top control and ground and pound, and effective submissions. His best asset in this fight is going to be his striking, because Stevenson has a very short reach and rudimentary striking, but his ground game is top notch.

Stevenson, who easily dominated season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter at Welterweight, has put together a very solid Lightweight career since then. He is currently on a disappointing two fight losing streak, but he is still a very formidable wrestler with excellent jiu-jitsu and one of the most effective guillotine chokes in the sport. The biggest hamper to his success is his lack of standup technique and his extremely short reach. Stevenson has what it takes to beat Castillo on the ground from top position, the question is whether or not he will be able to get it there.

I think that Castillo is in an excellent position to come out of his Octagon debut with a win. Stevenson is a tough wrestler with good submissions, but his offense is predictable and he will be overwhelmed in the standup. Both guys are good enough on the ground that it is unlikely this fight will end in a submission, but Castillo’s superior ability to mix up striking and grappling and to score points on the feet should be enough to earn him the decision nod.

Prediction:  Danny Castillo via Unanimous Decision.

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