Strikeforce Light Heavyweight bout: Dan Henderson vs. Renato Sobral

Odds:  (-265 Henderson /+205 Sobral )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

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In the main event of the evening, UFC veteran Renato “Babalu” Sobral and former two-division PRIDE champion Dan Henderson will meet in a rematch more than ten years in the making. The last time these two met was February of 2000, with Henderson taking an extremely narrow majority decision in the Rings King of Kings finals. Both men have had very successful careers since then, and this should be another very competitive fight.

“Babalu”, a long-time mainstay at the top of UFC’s Light Heavyweight division, was let go due to an unfortunate incident in which he held a choke for too long, rather than for a decline in performance. A jiu-jitsu expert with fierce striking and solid wrestling, Babalu is a very well-rounded fighter with a lot of offensive tools in his belt. He isn’t the kind of guy who is going to just overwhelm his opponents, but he is a threat to finish in every range and doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game.

Henderson is also very well-rounded, with great wrestling, especially in the clinch, and huge power punching. His top game is fairly solid, but he does his best work throwing big shots on the feet and using the clinch to neutralize his opponents and bruise them up. He has an excellent chin as well, but his actual ground game is a bit lacking and he is susceptible to being swept and even submitted.

On the feet, Babalu is faster and more technical, but Henderson has far more knockout power and throws his huge looping punches from unorthodox angles. Babalu definitely has a better submission game, but I don’t think he is going to have the ability to really force Henderson into a ground game. I think Henderson will bully Babalu around in the clinch and bruise him up with dirty boxing before eventually catching him with one of his trademark power punches for the T/KO win.

Prediction:  Dan Henderson via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Middleweight bout: Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland

Odds:  (-170 Lawler /+140 Lindland )

Betting Pick:  lindland

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In the semi-main event, two long-time veterans and former UFC fighters will go at it in an old-school style vs. style matchup as prolific wrestler Matt “The Law” Lindland faces off against powerful striker “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Both of these guys have had mixed results recently, due largely to their lack of versatility, but both of them are still among the best in the world at what they do. Will Lindland be able to control Lawler and bruise him up from top position, or will Lawler make Lindland pay for his takedown attempts with powerful strikes?

Lawler, a long-time UFC mainstay, is a very dynamic and effective striker. He is actually a fairly decent wrestler also, but that is irrelevant against a guy with wrestling of Lindland’s caliber. Lawler will definitely dominate the standup exchanges, though, and any punch he lands has the potential to be the one that ends Lindland’s night.

It is unlikely that Lawler is going to have many opportunities to land those punches on Lindland, though, if he has his way. An Olympic silver medalist, Lindland has the best wrestling pedigree of anyone competing in MMA, and he will no doubt look to use that wrestling to put Lawler on his back for as much of this fight as he possibly can.

This one basically comes down to whether or not Lindland can get Lawler to the ground and keep him there. Lindland is not going to last very long on the feet with Lawler, but Lawler doesn’t have the ground game to prevent Lindland from controlling him if he can get him down. I really think it’s going to be hard for Lawler to stop Lindland’s takedowns. If he tries to bullrush in and throw shots, he is going to get dumped to the ground and worn out from top position. I think that ultimately Lindland’s wrestling is going to prove too much, and he will grind out the decision.

Prediction:  Matt “The Law” Lindland via Unanimous Decision.

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Strikeforce Welterweight bout: Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith

Odds:  (-365 Daley / +285 Smith )

Betting Pick:  Daley

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In a Welterweight bout that has the potential for extreme amounts of violence, UFC veterans Paul “Semtex” Daley and Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith will go at it. Both of these guys have serious knockout power and a willingness to go toe to toe, so this could be the most exciting fight of the night, easily. Whichever guy goes home with the win, expect some fireworks.

Daley, who was recently let go from the UFC following an ugly fight and an ugly incident with Josh Koscheck, is nevertheless a very formidable striker. His biggest problem is that he really has no ground game at all, but Smith is tailor made for him in that regard. This fight is pretty much guaranteed to play out on the feet, and in that area there are no deficiencies in Daley’s game.

His opponent, Scott Smith, is one of the toughest guys on the planet. A heavy-handed brawler, Smith does lack some technique but makes up for it with a granite chin, a surplus of power, and a ton of heart. Smith will stand and trade with anyone on the planet, and Daley is not going to be an exception.

Daley is definitely the technically superior striker, but Smith is more powerful and is not scared to get hit to land some bombs. I think the edge has to go to Daley though, because his technical ability and his more versatile striking attack should be enough to trump Smith’s huge power punches to the head. Daley will beat Smith to the punch consistently, work the body, and eventually take the T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Paul Daley via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Heavyweight bout:  Antonio Silva vs. Valentijn Overeem

Odds:  (Silva / Overeem )

Betting Pick:  Silva

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In an interesting Heavyweight showdown, long-time veteran Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva will square off with Valtentijn Overeem, the brother of Strikeforce Heavyweight champ Alistair Overeem. While Valentijn is nowhere near as effective as his brother, he does have some solid punching and good submissions, so this is not a walkover fight for Silva, even if he is favored heavily.

Overeem, a veteran of almost 15 years in the sport, is something of an anomaly. On the ground, he has a good submission attack but basically no submission defense, which is problematic because his attempts to finish frequently leave him open to losing by submission himself. Similarly, he has good punching and powerful kicks, but not much defense and a questionable chin. He is the kind of guy who can finish any given fight, and get finished just as easily. That inconsistency has kept him from being a top figure at any point in his career, but he is nevertheless versatile and dangerous.

Silva, for his part, is a somewhat lumbering and immobile fighter who is surprisingly effective anyway. With heavy hands, good wrestling, and quality submissions, Silva is well-rounded and effective even if he is not the type of guy who is going to overwhelm opponents in any one area. He should have the edge in almost every area against Overeem, though, so he just needs to make sure not to get overzealous and fall into a trap.

Obviously, I think this matchup favors Silva. He is the better striker and definitely the better wrestler, and if it goes to the ground he will have the advantageous position and is more than good enough to hold off Overeem’s submission attempts. In addition, Overeem’s submission defense is notoriously spotty, so Silva should be able to wear him down and put him away on the ground. Silva by submission.

Prediction: Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva via third round rear naked choke.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…