Heavyweight Championship bout:  Brock Lesnar  vs  Shane Carwin

Odds:  (-140 Lesnar / +110 Carwin )

In the main event, the muddled Heavyweight title picture will finally be cleared up as Champion Brock Lesnar, fresh off a long layoff due to illness, will finally unify his title with challenger Shane Carwin’s interim title.  This fight has been a while in the making, and these are two of the most powerful and explosive men in the sport, so this promises to be a stellar main event.

Carwin, who has a strong amateur wrestling background, has made a name for himself in the UFC with his hands rather than his wrestling.  An outstanding puncher with a vast surplus of knockout power, Carwin has shown that he can take punishment on the feet and dole it out to great effect as well.  The big question mark in this fight is his wrestling.  Although he has a very strong amateur background, he has never really shown off his wrestling very much in MMA, and Lesnar is a freakish monster in that department.

Lesnar, who bullied his way to the UFC title with a combination of hulking size, brute strength, and unmatched wrestling acumen, is one of the most formidable human beings you are ever likely to see.  It is easy to forget that he is still relatively new to the fight game and that his technique is still coming along in a lot of ways because he has looked so utterly dominant.  In his rematch against Frank Mir, he showed amazing positional control while turning Mir’s face to mincemeat on the ground.  Carwin has a wrestling background, but Mir has proven that he can compete on the ground in MMA at the highest level, and Lesnar still blew him out of the water.

I think Carwin has got his hands full in this one.  While he certainly has a puncher’s chance and then some, I think his much-touted wrestling background is going to wilt in the face of Lesnar’s size, strength, and aggression.  Lesnar can and will take him down, and once he does it is elementary, because no one, Carwin included, is going to work off their back with Lesnar on top of them for more than a minute or two.  Expect a standup exchange out of the gate, but the second Lesnar takes a shot he will dump Carwin on his back and maul him for the stoppage.

Prediction:  Brock Lesnar via second round TKO.

• Bet on Brock @ -140 for the Win. Lesnar started @-220
• Those of you who are planning on betting on Carwin may want to make that bet soon.  His odds started @+180 and are now down to +110
• We will see these odds get closer come Saturday.

  To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

1.  matt s. on June 29th, 2010 12:38 pm

   I agree, good article!

2.  matt s. on June 29th, 2010 12:39 pm

   also, how do you feel about betting brock to “finish inside the distance”? Isn’t that just better odds and you are betting for basically the same thing since we aren’t thinking lesnar wins via 5 round decision, right?

3.  Pat on June 29th, 2010 8:00 pm

   If you can get those odds I would defenitely take it.

4.  matt s. on July 1st, 2010 8:03 pm

   yeah I got even money on inside the distance. Since this seems like the way brock would win, I feel like I got to bet on the favorite for even money odds. Woot woot!