170 lbs: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

The third bout of the evening is a competitive welterweight matchup between Ultimate Fighter Season 1 alum Mike “Quick” Swick and Brazilian bruiser Paulo Thiago.  Both men are in the middle of the crowded Welterweight mix, so a win here is crucial to distance them from the pack.

Paulo Thiago burst onto the UFC scene with a spectacular knockout of top contender Josh Koscheck.  He followed it up going 1-1 in his next two Octagon appearances, outpointing tough wrestler Jacob Volkmann and coming up just short against another top contender in Jon Fitch.  Thiago has an impressive skill set, with very good jiu-jitsu, good wrestling, and obviously one-punch knockout power, although his standup technique is not spectacular.  That well-roundedness is going to be crucial against Swick, who also has a very versatile offense.

Mike Swick first made a name for himself on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and since that time he has continued to grow as a fighter and turned in a slew of very impressive performances.  Originally a mainstay at 185, Swick moved down after coming up short against Yushin Okami, and fought his way to the top of the Welterweight division before coming up short against Dan Hardy in his last fight.  Swick’s punching is the best thing about his game, but he also has very solid wrestling to complement his technical kickboxing and knockout power.  Another important factor to consider is that both Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, who have fought Thiago, are Swick’s teammates, which almost has to provide some benefit in training for him.

Ultimately, Swick is too well-rounded for Thiago to handle.  Thiago does have one-punch knockout power, but Swick knows that and is too smart to over-commit.  Technically, Swick is much better on the feet, and while Thiago does have good jiu-jitsu Swick’s superior wrestling will keep Thiago from dictating the pace of the bout.  I expect Swick to control this one en route to a unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction: Mike Swick via unanimous decision.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

185 lbs:  Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

The second bout of the evening has all the makings of a ground war, as two of the Middleweight division’s most prolific submission artists will meet in Dan Miller and Demian Maia.  Both men are coming off losses and both men have world-class ground games, so this should be a competitive grappling clinic.

Dan Miller is one of the best up and coming Middleweights in the world, and most of his success has come as a result of his excellent jiu-jitsu.  In his last fight, he was smothered by dominant wrestler Chael Sonnen, but he is always a threat to finish on the ground and also has solid wrestling and striking that seem to improve every time he fights.

If there is anyone in the 185 pound division that can test Miller’s ground game, it is undoubtedly Demian Maia.  A former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, Maia did not miss a beat translating his deadly submission game to Mixed Martial Arts.  In his last fight, against top contender Nate Marquardt, Maia learned that he had a long way to go to become a complete fighter, as he was knocked out in about 20 seconds in highlight reel fashion.  It’s pretty clear that Maia is a one-dimensional threat, but that one dimension is so spectacular that he can still be successful at the top level.

Miller is just outmatched in this fight.  His best work comes on the ground, but he is grossly outclassed in the grappling game by Maia and he lacks the explosive standup that allowed Marquardt to finish Maia.  This will probably look a lot like a jiu-jitsu match, and unfortunately for Miller there is no way he beats Maia in a jiu-jitsu match.  Maia by submission.

Fight Prediction: Demian Maia via third round submission.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

 170 lbs.  Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

The opening bout of the evening pits long-time veteran Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg against former UFC Welterweight champion Matt “The Terror” Serra.  Both men have been around UFC for years, but this is the first time that their paths have crossed.   While this one probably isn’t going to shake up any title pictures or have any real serious implications, it is chock full of nostalgia and should be a competitive and exciting fight.

Frank Trigg, a long-time veteran who has faced top competition in a variety of different promotions, has returned to his true home in the UFC to wind down his career.  In his first fight back, he was thrown right into the deep end of the division, and predictably came up short against top contender Josh Koscheck.  Now, he will get a crack at an opponent more suited to him in the form of Matt Serra.  Trigg will enter this fight with some significant advantages, as he is actually quite well-rounded and has good striking and an underrated wrestling game.  He will also have a height, size, an reach advantage over Serra, who could probably fight at 155, while Trigg has fought at 185. 

 The most problematic thing for Trigg in this fight is going to be his submission defense.  In the past, Trigg has showed some difficulty dealing with submissions, especially the Rear Naked Choke, and that could be disastrous against a grappler of Serra’s caliber.

Serra, who shocked the world by TKOing Georges St. Pierre and parlaying his Ultimate Fighter win into a Welterweight title reign, is one of the most prolific grapplers in the welterweight division, which everyone knows.  Many people underrate his striking game, though, which is crisp and accurate despite his troublingly short arms.  Against Trigg, it is unlikely Serra is going to want to trade too many shots, because the height and reach advantage he will give up could spell his end.  Don’t expect Serra to be afraid of standing with Trigg, but his gameplan will no doubt be to eventually get Trigg to the ground and exploit his spotty submission defense.

Stylistically, I think the edge goes to Serra.  Trigg has some physical advantages, especially his reach, but Serra is very well-rounded and his grappling game is dominant enough that he can impose his will on Trigg when the fight hits the ground.  Expect a competitive, back and forth contest, but Serra will take control of the fight late in the second, take Trigg’s back, and secure the rear naked choke for the win.

Fight Prediction: Matt Serra via second round rear naked choke.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Event:  UFC 112 – Silva vs. Maia

Date:  Saturday, April 10, 2010

Venue: The Concert Arena, Ferrari World, Yas Island

Broadcast:  Live on PPV at 10:00 p.m. E.T.

UFC 112 Betting Odds

Main Card:

• Anderson Silva (25-4) vs. Demian Maia (12-1) (Main Event) Middleweight Title Fight
• BJ Penn (15-5-1) vs. Frankie Edgar (11-1)  Lightweight Title Fight
• Matt Hughes (43-7) vs. Renzo Gracie (13-6-1-1)
• Terry Etim (14-3) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (13-4)
• Kendall Grove (11-6-0-1) vs. Mark Munoz (7-1)

Preliminary Card:

• Alexander Gustafsson (9-0) vs. Phil Davis (5-0)
• Paul Taylor (10-5-1-1) vs. John Gunderson (22-7)
• Nick Osipczak (5-1) vs. Rick Story (9-3)
• DaMarques Johnson (15-7) vs. Brad Blackburn (15-10-1)
• Paul Kelly (10-2) vs. Matt Veach (11-1)

 265 lbs: Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

After a long search for a suitable opponent, Bobby Lashley’s Strikeforce debut has been finalized, as he will face off with UFC veteran and recent Ultimate Fighter contestant Wes Sims.  Sims is coming off an embarrassing loss, but has a wealth of experience and has fought some of the best heavyweights in the world, while Lashley is a promising prospect but still very green,

Wes Sims is, to say the least, a colorful character.  While he is known for being a goof and a joker, Sims’ size is no joke, and he is going to be a dangerous opponent for anyone based on that alone.  Luckily for Sims he also has some skills, especially hard punching set up by his very long reach, that make him a tough nut to crack.  What’s interesting about Sims is that, while he comes from the famed Hammer House camp, where he trained with legendary wrestlers Mark Coleman and Kevin Randleman, his wrestling game is pretty terrible, and he lacks any significant offensive wrestling or takedown defense.  Against Lashley, a very powerful wrestler, Sims is going to need to use his huge reach and his jab to keep Lashley at bay and set up his power shots.

Lashley, who made a name for himself in Brock Lesnar’s old stomping grounds of the WWE, has Strikeforce banking on the fact that he can show the same level of dominance as his old co-worker.  Unlike Lesnar, though, who had captured the UFC Heavyweight Title in his fourth bout, Lashley is being built up slowly, and his toughest test to date has been over the hill kickboxer Bob Sapp.  It is no great surprise that Lashley’s best attribute is his powerful wrestling, which is only made more dangerous by his size and bulk.  His game plan against Sims will no doubt be to power the fight to the ground, where he has a huge advantage.

I get the distinct feeling that this is not going to be Sims’ night.  In his last fight, he was completely bulldozed by a guy who has worse wrestling than Lashley does and is also noticeably smaller.  I don’t see a way that Sims prevents Lashley from just throwing him on the ground and destroying him with ground and pound. 

Fight Prediction: Bobby Lashley via first round T/KO.

you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…