UFC 106, from a gambling perspective, is one of the least attractive cards in recent memory.  A number of mismatches, a number of fights that are extremely competitive, and some near-wash odds combine to make this a difficult show to squeeze profit from.

Never fear, though, because there is a difference between difficult and impossible.  There are two matchups on this card that show potential for profit with underdog bets.  First, Bellator veteran Jacob Volkmann, who is an underdog (+160) to Paulo Thiago, has a dominant wrestling and top control game, which should allow him to earn the upset since Thiago showed vulnerability to top-level wrestlers against Jon Fitch in his last fight.  Secondly, UFC veteran Phil Baroni  is an underdog (+175) against Ultimate Fighter winner Amir Sadollah.  Sadollah has a dangerous submission game, but Baroni has excellent takedown defense early in the fight and a surplus of knockout power.  Sadollah is going to have a hard time taking Baroni down early on, and in his last fight he was stopped with strikes very early by Johnny Hendricks, who has nowhere near the amount of power Baroni has.  I think Baroni, despite his awful record, should be able to keep this fight standing and put Sadollah down early in the first.  Kendall Grove is also an underdog with a good chance of winning, but I think the other two stylistic matchups make those bets a little bit safer. 

Of course, you can also make a little bit of profit parlaying favorites.  In my mind, the two best “sure thing” favorites are Brock Larson and George Sotiropolous, so a parlay of those two fighters could pay dividends.  If you want to improve the profit margin, maybe add Volkmann to that to sweeten up the odds.

Current (Main Card) UFC 106 Odds at Sportsbook.com

• Ortiz      (even)

• Griffin    (-130)

• Koscheck (-115)

• Johnson   (-115)

• Sadollah (-215)

• Baroni    (+175)

• Nogueira  (-150)

• Cane         (+120)

• Volkmann (+160)

• Thiago       (-200)

UFC 106 Predictions and Information Page.

170 lbs: Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann

With Karo Parisyan’s withdrawal from UFC 106 for unknown reasons, the Welterweight bout between Paulo Thiago and undefeated Bellator veteran Jacob Volkmann has been bumped up to the main card.  Thiago was thrown right into the deep end of the Welterweight division, and now Volkmann is getting a similar treatment, debuting against Thiago.

Thiago, a well-rounded Brazilian with an excellent submission attack and some serious knockout power, came bursting onto the UFC with a huge knockout win over top contender Josh Koscheck.  After such an impressive performance in a tough debut, Thiago was thrown even deeper into the title contender’s mix against dominant wrestler Jon Fitch.  Fitch’s dominant wrestling proved too much for Thiago, who lost a unanimous decision after being controlled for pretty much the entire fight.  Still, being 1-1 in UFC against two guys who have challenged for the title is no small feat.  Thiago has all the tools to remain successful near the top of the division, too, with a proven track record of submission wins and the knockout power he showed against Koscheck.  If he wants to get back into the win column, though, he is going to have to work on his takedown defense, sweeps, and escapes.  Fitch controlled him with wrestling, and Volkmann brings a top-level wrestling game into the Octagon, so hopefully Thiago has been drilling his wrestling extensively.

Jacob “Christmas” Volkmann, one of the most inexplicably-nicknamed fighters in the world, has a style that is as hard to figure out as his nickname.  Volkmann, who trains out of Minnesota Martial Arts with stars such as Nick Thompson, Brock Larson, and Brock Lesnar, has the dominant wrestling game that has become associated with that camp.  He also, unlike some of his MMAA contemporaries, has a world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, and has won two thirds of his fights with submissions.  The biggest concern for Volkmann here is that Thiago represents a pretty big step up in competition for him.  Volkmann has the tools to earn the win with his dominant wrestling, he just has to remain calm and not let his tough opponent and first appearance on the big show get to him.

Stylistically, I think the edge here goes to Volkmann.  Both guys have excellent submission games, so I doubt either man will get finished by submission.  The edge in standup has to go to Thiago, who has proven that he can finish a quality fighter on the feet.  The most important factor, though, is going to be Volkmann’s dominant wrestling.  An accomplished NCAA wrestler who has shown that he can effectively use his wrestling in MMA, Volkmann should have no problem taking Thiago down and controlling him.  He’ll have to be cautious on the top because Thiago has a quality ground game, so this one may not be very exciting, but Volkmann should be able to control the pace, shut down Thiago’s offense, and earn the unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction: Volkmann via unanimous decision

Event:  Strikeforce “Evolution” : Cung Le vs. Scott Smith

Date:  Saturday, December 19, 2009

Venue:  The HP Pavilion in San Jose, California

Broadcast:  Live at 9:00 p.m. E.T. on Showtime

Strikeforce “Evolution” Odds

Main Card

• Josh Thomson (16-2) vs. Gilbert Melendez (16-2)  – Main Event
• Cung Le (6-0) vs. Scott Smith (16-6) 
• Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (10-2) vs. Matt Lindland (21-6)
• Muhammed “King Mo” Lawel vs. Mike Whitehead (24-6)

Preliminary Card

• Evangelista Santos (16-13) vs. TBA
• Scott Lightly (5-0) vs. Antwain Britt

 Here I have provided everything you will need to look over and study to help with your betting decisions at UFC 106.

Fight Odds & Betting Lines

• UFC 106 Betting Odds
• MMA Betting Sites

UFC 106 Fight Card

• Full UFC 106 Fight Card

Pat’s Expert Predictions

• Quick UFC 106 Predictions Page

Detailed Fight Predictions

• Ortiz vs. Griffin
• Koscheck vs. Johnson
• Sadollah vs. Baroni
• Cane vs. Nogueira
• Thiago vs. Volkmann
• Parisyan vs. Hazelett

UFC 106 Fighter Profiles

• Tito Ortiz
• Forrest Griffin
• Josh Koscheck
• Anthony Johnson
• Amir Sadollah
• Phil Baroni
• Luiz Cane
• Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
• Karo Parisyan
• Dustin Hazelett

UFC 106 Video Promos

• UFC 106 Weigh-In Video
• Ortiz vs. Griffin Promo
• Ortiz vs. Griffin UFC 106 Countdown Video
• Ortiz Talks Griffin
• Griffin Talks Ortiz
• Ortiz vs. Evans Fight Video
• Koscheck vs. Johnson Promo Video

 For the Main Event we have our Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin Prediction Page.

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Koscheck vs. Johnson prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• In this fight we will see Anthony Johnson look to keep this fight standing and land a devastating kick or punch. While Koscheck will look to land a KO punch of his own, I believe he will need to use his wrestling and get secure a few takedowns.  Even though we haven’t seen Johnson’s ground game he is a solid wrestler and taking him down will not be easy for Koscheck.  I see Koscheck fighting smart and trading with Johnson, but mostly to set up the takedown.  It will be a very competitive fight and I have Koscheck doing enough damage to take home the win.  Koscheck via split decision.

  - Koscheck vs. Johnson Odds

Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Sadollah vs. Baroni prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• Here we have TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah taking on “The New York Bad Ass” Phil Baroni.  Baroni a wrestler and power puncher will have one thing on his mind.  He will come out hard in the first round with a flurry of heavy hands looking to land on Sadollah’s chin.  I really believe Amir’s only chance at winning this fight is to weather the early storm and make it out of round one.  We all know Baroni’s cardio is terrible and tends to gas out in the later rounds.  If Amir can take it into the third round he may be able to sneak in a submission on a tired Baroni.  I don’t see that happening and Baroni will overwhelm Sadollah with wild heavy punches and connect midway first round. Baroni via first round KO.  Baroni is the underdog, so take this bet early before it withers away. 

  - Sadollah vs. Baroni Odds

Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Cane vs. Nogueira prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• This fight slates two dangerous Brazilian fighters.  We have the UFC debut of “Lil Nog” Antonio Rogerio Nogueira pitted against heavy handed striker Luiz Cane.  Cane lost his UFC debut to James Irvin via DQ and has since looked very good winning three in a row.  Cane will most likely look to keep the fight standing trading shots with Lil Nog.  Nogueira definitely has the advantage on the ground, but he can definitely hold his own striking.  Nogueira is too well rounded for Cane and will wrap up a submission in the third round.  Nogueira via third round submission.

Cane vs. Nogueira Odds

 Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Parisyan vs. Hazelett prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• In the first fight on the main card we have “The Heat” vs. “McLovin”.  Now if were going off names alone you have to take “The Heat”.  Dustin “McLovin” Hazelett is a very good grappler with a majority of his wins coming via submission.  Karo Parisyan is also a very solid grappler and accomplished judoka.  Both fighters are par at best in the striking department and rely on takedowns to secure wins.  I give Parisyan the advantage standing and a slight advantage on the ground.  With that in mind this fight goes to Parisyan via unanimous decision.

  - Parisyan vs. Hazelett Odds

UFC 106 Quick Picks

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Marcus Davis over Ben Saunders via second round T/KO

• Kendall Grove over Jake Rosholt via second round submission

• George Sotiropoulos over Jason Dent via second round armbar

• Brock Larson over Brian Foster via unanimous decision

• Caol Uno over Fabricio Camoes via first round rear naked choke

Main event:

205 lbs: Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Odds: (even Ortiz / -130 Griffin)

The main event is a rematch between two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions, “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz and fan favorite Forrest Griffin.  This fight promises to be explosive for a number of reasons.  In their first fight, Ortiz was awarded an extremely controversial decision after destroying Griffin in the first round but seemingly losing the subsequent two.  Adding fuel to the fire, Ortiz accused Griffin of applying a greasing agent in his corner during the fight, a charge Griffin vehemently denies.  Furthermore, Ortiz is 0-2-1 in his last three fights, and has fought only twice since 2007, during which time he was frequently publicly maligned by UFC President Dana White, so he is hungry to prove that he is still one of the top Light Heavyweights in the world.  Forrest, in the meantime, is coming off a TKO loss to Rashad Evans and one of the most embarrassing destructions in UFC history at the hands of Middleweight champion Anderson Silva, so a win here is an absolute must if he wants to stay relevant at the top of the Light Heavyweight division.

Forrest Griffin is something of an enigma.  A perennial underdog, he seemed to find ways to snatch victory from his hugely favored opponents until recently.  One of Griffin’s biggest advantages is his size.  He will enter the fight with a sizable advantage over Ortiz in height, reach, and weight.  The biggest hole in his game is that he is a jack of all trades, but king of none.  He is a proficient boxer, but has absolutely no knockout power.  He can wrestle, but not well enough to out-wrestle someone like Tito.  His jiu jitsu, though, is very underrated, as he proved when he submitted skilled grappler Shogun Rua.  For him to avenge his controversial loss, the key is going to be his takedown defense.  If he can keep Tito at bay using his reach and his jab while stopping takedowns like he did in rounds 2 and 3 of their first fight, he proved that he can easily outbox Tito and control the fight standing.

Ortiz, the longest-reigning Light Heavyweight champion in UFC’s history, did not achieve that status because his takedowns are easy to stop.  Arguably one of the most dominant wrestlers in the sport’s history, Ortiz’s only problem is that he didn’t evolve with the sport and develop a top-level standup game.  Even so, every opponent he has ever fought has known that a takedown was coming, and only three, Lyoto Machida, Randy Couture, and Chuck Liddell, have managed to stop it with any efficacy.  Long hampered by back injuries, Ortiz insists that he is in the best physical condition of his career after numerous surgeries, but his lack of recent activity is somewhat troubling.  Still, he has never been known as someone with bad cardio, and he should certainly have enough conditioning for a three round fight.

If Tito is to be believed, and his back is in top condition, he will easily dominate Forrest with takedowns.  Over the recent years, his takedowns have looked slower by far than in his peak years, but this layoff may have been exactly what he needed to get his back into shape.  The biggest thing working against Forrest is his pillow hands.  He can outbox Ortiz easily, but it is extremely unlikely that he will actually knock him out.  That gives Tito a little more leeway on the feet, since he can reasonably expect to survive eating a punch or two in exchange for securing a takedown.  Forrest is a proficient grappler, but Tito is notoriously difficult to submit, and has a strong submission wrestling background.  I expect Forrest to win stretches of this fight by utilizing his size advantage and superior striking, but I just don’t think he will be able to prevent Tito from taking him down enough times, and doing enough damage from top position, to earn an uncontroversial unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction: Ortiz via unanimous decision