170 lbs. Martin “Hitman” Kampmann  vs. Paul Daley

Odds: ( - Kampmann / + Daley)

In what is sure to be a competitive matchup at 170 pounds, heavy-handed Brit Paul “Semtex” Daley steps up to replace the injured Mike Swick against top contender Martin “Hitman” Kampmann.  Originally, this bout was intended to determine the next challenger to Georges St. Pierre’s Welterweight Crown, but Swick’s injury obviously put a halt to that.  Still, a win for Kampmann could very well earn him a title shot, and a win for Daley would go a long way toward establishing him as a contender, so there’s a lot on the line for both men in this fight.

Daley, a heavy-handed and explosive striker, makes his UFC debut after previous stints in EliteXC, Strikeforce, and Cage Rage.  While he is not particularly well-rounded, he has carved out a successful niche for himself by leaving many of his opponents unconscious on the mat with his accurate and powerful striking.  The troubling thing about this fight for Daley is that in his previous attempts at breaking through to the top level of competition, he has been largely unsuccessful.  Now, he will have to face one of his toughest opponents to date on one of the largest stages in the world, and on short notice to boot.  His best bet to come out of this fight victorious is to push the action as much as he can, hoping to keep Kampmann off balance and open for a potentially fight-ending shot.

Kampmann, for his part, will come into this fight with a number of advantages.  Most notably, Kampmann is a very large Welterweight, only recently having moved down from Middleweight following a loss to Nate Marquardt.  For another, Kampmann had the benefit of a full training camp.  Granted, he began training for Mike Swick, but Daley is actually a better stylistic matchup for Kampmann with his utter lack of a ground game.  Another consideration is that Kampmann has more experience on the big UFC stage.

Basically, this is Kampmann’s fight to lose.  All the cards are stacked in his favor and, more importantly, he is just a better and more complete fighter than Daley is.  Barring a flash knockout, which is always a possibility with a guy who hits as hard as Daley, I see Kampmann taking this fight to the ground early and pounding Daley out uneventfully. 

Kampmann by TKO, round 2.

170 lbs. Josh “Kos” Koscheck  vs. Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg

Odds: (-500 Koscheck / +300 Trigg) at Sportsbook.com

In a compelling Welterweight fight, Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg makes his UFC return against powerful wrestler Josh Koscheck.  Trigg, once a top contender in UFC’s 170 pound division, was released from the company following consecutive losses to Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre.  A successful run outside of the Octagon, though, has brought him right back to the big show, where he will look to avoid being defeated by yet another top amateur wrestler.  Koscheck, for his part, will be looking to get back on track after a shocking upset loss to unheralded Paulo Thiago.

Trigg is probably one of the most underrated welterweights in the world.  He is extremely well-rounded, with good wrestling, good standup, and good submissions.  Also, he has fought in all of the top organizations against all of the best fighters in the world.  That said, he still is not going to outwrestle Josh Koscheck, so he is going to need to keep his distance, work his striking game, and try to stuff Koscheck’s powerful, driving double legs.

What makes this fight so compelling is that Koscheck has also grown into a very well-rounded fighter.  Once considered a boring lay and pray specialist, Koscheck’s kickboxing has improved by leaps and bounds over his UFC career to the point that he is now a formidable striker.  Still, after being knocked out by a relative nobody in his last fight, Koscheck is going to want to go back to his bread and butter, wrestling, if he wants to conquer Trigg.

In the end, that’s exactly what I see happening.  Koscheck is a hyper competitive guy, and I think that, to come back from an embarrassing loss and re-establish himself as a winner, he will go back to the strategy that got him to the table. 

I think Trigg will prove slippery and give Koscheck some trouble, but ultimately Koscheck’s wrestling is going to be too much for the long-time veteran, garnering him a unanimous decision win.

155 lbs. Hermes Franca (19-7) vs. Tyson Griffin (13-2)

Odds: (-260 Griffin / +200 Franca) at Sportsbook.com

The opening bout of the pay per view event is a very competitive Lightweight match up between two rising stars in Hermes Franca and Tyson Griffin.  Both men have established themselves as forces to be reckoned with at 155 pounds, despite some recent mixed results.  Considering how stacked the Lightweight division is, a win here could help distance either man from the pack, while a loss would send either right back to the drawing board.

Franca, an exciting young fighter, has earned a lot of success with his mix of quality stand up and effective grappling.  He already has some very big wins in his young career, but recently dropped 2 of his last 3 against quality wrestlers Frank Edgar and Sean Sherk.  That said, Franca is going to need to come in to this fight with improved takedown defense unless he wants to make it three of his last four.  Franca’s striking and jiu-jitsu are both better than Griffin’s, but to work his gameplan he is going to have to keep Griffin from taking and holding him down.

Griffin, a powerful wrestler who plies his trade out of Las Vegas’ Xtreme Couture gym, has also suffered only two losses in UFC, ironically to the same two men who recently defeated Franca.  Griffin is something of an anomaly, in that he is not known for finishing fights, but his decision wins (and losses) are always extremely competitive and exciting.

This is as competitive a match up as you will ever see.  Both guys have similar levels of experience and similar records.  Stylistically, though, the edge goes to Griffin.  Both guys do their best work on the ground, but Griffin’s athleticism and smothering top control are going to make it difficult for Franca to work his submission game from the bottom. 

I see this one being competitive, but Griffin should control the majority of the action with takedowns and positional control en route to one his trademark exciting unanimous decisions.

Melvin Guillard

• Nickname-                      ”The Young Assassin”
• Born-                                New Orleans, LA, USA 
• Age-                                  27
• Height-                             5’9″ (175 cm)
• Weight-                            155 (70 kg)
• MMA Record-                  26-8-2
• Fighting out of-                New Orleans, LA
• Strengths-                        Striking, athleticism, strength
• Team/Association-         Jackson’s Submission Fighting

Last 7 fights

• Win against Jeremy Stephens via split decision at UFC 119
• Win against Waylon Lowe via TKO at UFC 114
• Win against Ronnys Torres via unanimous decision at UFC 109
• Loss against Nate Diaz via guillotine choke at Fight Night 19
• Win against Gleison Tibau via split decision at TUF 9 Finale
• Win against Dennis Siver via TKO at UFC 86
• Win against Eric Regan via unanimous decision at RIC 105 

For the Main Event we have our Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard Prediction Page

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Maynard vs. Huerta prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• Roger Huerta enters this fight to fulfill his UFC contract and pursue an acting career.  He will be facing undefeated and very talented Gray Maynard in the Co Main event.  Both fighters rely on their wrestling to control their opponents and get in position to deliver a beating.  However I believe Maynard will have the advantage in that department and give Huerta a slight advantage in the stand up.  I see Maynard displaying his dominant wrestling over Huerta earning a unanimous decision victory. 

  – Maynard vs. Huerta Odds

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Condit vs. Ellenberger prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• Former WEC welterweight champ Carlos Condit will take on MMA vet Jake Ellenberger.  Condit will look to rebound from his UFC debut loss to Martin Kampmann and welcome Ellenberger into the UFC with a loss.  Ellenberger comes into this fight with a great record and MMA experience but lacks the talent  that Condit has faced.  Condit is a primarily a grappler and Ellenberger a striker. This fight will come down to Condit being able to strike with Ellenberger and then using his superior grappling en route to a unanimous decision victory.

  – Condit vs. Ellenberger Odds

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Quarry vs. Credeur prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• Here we have two TUF alums in Nate Quarry (season 1) and Tim Credeur (Season 7). This is a great stylistic match up of Striker vs. Grappler.  Quarry is a good striker with heavy hands but lacks the speed and mobility of Credeur.  Quarry needs to keep this fight up and try to land heavy shots, while Credeur is not afraid  to stand and trade he will eventually need to take this fight to the mat.  I see Credeur taking Quarry down where he is outclassed tremendously and securing a second round submission.  Bet on Credeur as a +215 underdog to win.

  – Quarry vs. Credeur Odds

Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Cantwell vs. Stann prediction page.

Pats Prediction

• Here we have a rubber match between WEC veterans Steve Cantwell against Brian Stann.  They both hold a win over eachother in the WEC and will look to settle business on the big stage in the UFC.  Both fighters are coming off loses and are hungry for a win.  Cantwell won his UFC debut against Razak Al-Hassan and Stann tasted defeat by the hands of Soszynski.  Stann carries heavy hands and has ended all six of his wins via T/KO.  Cantwell on the other hand can also strike, but brings in good wrestling and submissions. I think that will keep Stann thinking and this will be a repeat of WEC 35 with Cantwell earning a second round TKO victory.

  – Cantwell vs. Stann Odds

Fight Night 19 Preliminary Card Quick Picks

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Mike Pyle over Chris Wilson via second round TKO

• CB Dolloway over Jay Silva via submission in round two

• Sam Stout over Phillipe Nover via third round KO

• Brock Larson over Mike Pierce via unanimous decision

• Justin Buchholz over Jeremy Stephens via unanimous decision

• Ryan Jensen over Steve Steinbeiss via unanimous decision

155 lbs. Nate Diaz (10-4) vs. Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (22-7-2)

Main Event Odds: (-265 Diaz / +205 Guillard ) At Sportsbook.com

Prediction:  Diaz by submission in round Two

The main event is a Lightweight fight between Stockton California’s Nathan Diaz and Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard.  This fight is interesting in that it will test Diaz’s superior technique against Guillard’s superior size and athleticism.  With Diaz having lost two in a row and Guillard riding a three fight win streak, this is an important fight for both guys, although for different reasons.

Guillard is almost freakishly athletic and possesses huge amounts of punching power and explosiveness.  His striking is technically inferior to Diaz’s, but much more powerful and potentially fight-ending.  The most important thing in this fight, though, is going to be Guillard’s submission defense, which has been dismal in the past.  Six of his seven professional losses have come by submission.  Considering how slick Diaz’s submissions are, if Guillard hasn’t worked on his submission defense extensively, he is going to be in a lot of trouble.

Diaz, for his part, lacks the kind of athleticism and explosiveness that make Guillard shine.  He more than makes up for it, though, with technically solid boxing set up by an odd peppering jab reminiscent of his brother Nick’s.  More importantly than that, though, Diaz has excellent submissions from both top and bottom position.  If this fight goes to the ground, Diaz will likely submit Guillard easily.  The only question is whether Diaz can maneuver this fight to the ground against Guillard’s superior power and athleticism.

Ultimately, I think this is Diaz’s fight to lose.  While he is physically overmatched against Guillard, he is vastly technically superior on both the feet and the ground.  More importantly, though, his biggest strength is Guillard’s biggest weakness.  I think Guillard will control this fight early and toss Diaz around a little bit, but ultimately his lack of technique and wildness will catch up with him, causing him to make a mistake which Diaz will capitalize on. 

Diaz by submission, round 2.

155 lbs. Roger “El Matador” Huerta (20-2-1) vs. Gray “The Bully” Maynard (7-0)

Odds: (-280 Maynard / +220 Huerta) at Sportsbook.com

Prediction: Maynard by a lopsided unanimous decision victory

The co-main event of the evening is a very competitive Lightweight showdown between two fighters who could both be title contenders in the near future, Roger “El Matador” Huerta and undefeated Gray “The Bully” Maynard.  Both fighters rely heavily on their wrestling ability to win, so whoever can win the wrestling exchanges will be in a great position to win the fight.

Roger Huerta is one of the most exciting Lightweights on the UFC roster, but he enters this fight surrounded by questions.  Earlier this year, Huerta announced that he would be leaving UFC to pursue an acting career.  This fight with Maynard is presumably to satisfy a contractual obligation, but Huerta’s future in the sport is in doubt past this fight.  Still, no one can deny his natural ability or his skill set.  A great wrestler with good submissions and very good kickboxing, Huerta has all the tools to be a top fighter, regardless of his motivation.

Maynard’s nickname, “The Bully”, is perhaps the most apt fighter nickname in the sport.  Maynard’s style is bruising, reminiscent of guys like Mark Coleman and Mark Kerr from the younger days of the sport.  Maynard’s wrestling is so dominant that he wins fights simply by taking guys down and completely controlling them on the ground.  It is not always the most crowd-pleasing style of fighting, but it has earned Maynard an unblemished professional record, including a dominant victory over the highly-touted Frankie Edgar.

All questions about Huerta’s motivation and dedication aside, this is not a great fight for him.  He may have an advantage against Maynard in the standup, but his bread and butter is wrestling, and in that regard he is totally outmatched by Maynard.  Even if Huerta was fully committed to training and fighting, I don’t think he would have an answer for Maynard’s powerful takedowns and smothering top control and ground and pound. 

 I see Maynard neutralizing Huerta’s offense, controlling him from top position and beating his face up en route to a unanimous decision.

170 lbs. Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit (22-5) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4)

Condit vs. Ellenberger Odds

The second bout of the night features another former WEC standout in the form of Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit, who will make his second Octagon appearance against MMA veteran and UFC rookie Jake Ellenberger.  While Ellenberger doesn’t have Condit’s high profile, he does have an equally impressive record and a wealth of experience against all sorts of opponents on all sorts of shows.

Ellenberger’s offense is well rounded, although his best work is done with his hands.  Still, he can also take opponents down and submit them, although his ground game isn’t exactly world class.  Even though Condit is the more famous of the two, Ellenberger is actually giving up nothing in the experience department, having fought all kinds of guys all over the place.  The troubling aspect, though, is that his few losses have come every time he has taken a step up in competition, something Condit definitely represents.  If he wants to be successful in his first UFC appearance, he is going to need a career performance, as Condit would be the biggest win he ever earned.

Condit, for his part, is looking to regain some of the momentum he brought into his UFC debut, a disappointing split decision loss to top contender Martin Kampmann.  A very skilled grappler, one of Condit’s best attributes is that he can box much better than most grapplers of his caliber.  He also has an edge over Ellenberger in that he has fought some of the best competition in the world outside of UFC.

This fight is, in some ways, a style versus style clash.  Ellenberger is primarily a striker, Condit primarily a grappler.  The deciding factor, though, will be that Condit’s striking is better than Ellenberger’s grappling.  This means that Condit will be able to play Ellenberger’s game longer than Ellenberger will be able to hang with Condit on the ground. 

That, coupled with Condit’s higher level of competition and big-show experience, will be too much for Ellenberger, who will drop a unanimous decision to “The Natural Born Killer”.

185 lbs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry (11-3) vs. “Crazy” Tim Credeur (12-2)

Quarry vs. Credeur Odds

The third match of the evening pits Ultimate Fighter Season One alum Nate “The Rock” Quarry against Season Seven competitor “Crazy” Tim Credeur.  This is a great stylistic match up, pitting Quarry’s heavy handed boxing against Credeur’s slick and effective Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Quarry is an inspirational story.  First, he was eliminated from The Ultimate Fighter by an injury he sustained training with Randy Couture.  Then, he was forced to undergo an extensive back surgery which would have ended most careers.  Quarry showed amazing resolve, though, fighting back from adversity and returning to mixed martial arts.  Unfortunately, his health issues did affect his mobility, which wasn’t much to write home about to begin with.  His standup is technically sound and he has very heavy hands, but he is slow and lumbering, which makes him a stationary target and also hurts his wrestling.

Credeur, on the other hand, is something of a wild man during his fights.  His standup is good, not great, but that has never stopped him from trading shots and putting on a show.  On the ground, he is extremely effective and slick and his best chance against Quarry will certainly be to take him down and try to submit him.  Considering that two thirds of his professional wins have come by submission that is a game plan Credeur is certainly capable of executing.

Stylistically, I think this fight is a nightmare for Quarry.  While he has an edge standing, at least technically, Credeur is much faster and more mobile.  More importantly, Credeur outclasses Quarry on the ground by miles.  Quarry just doesn’t have the physical tools to overcome Credeur’s superior speed and grappling. 

Credeur by submission, round 2.