Event Fighters:  265 lbs. Randy Couture (16-9) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1)

Main Event Odds: Couture -185 / Nogueira +155 at Sportsbook.com

Prediction: I see Couture earning the unanimous decision by controlling the pace throughout.

The main event of the evening is a matchup between two men who will be remembered among the greatest of all time.  Former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Randy “The Natural” Couture and former UFC Interim Heavyweight and Pride Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera will meet, finally, after years of speculation.  Both men are coming off big losses, and considering their age and experience, a loss for either could signal the end of a legendary career.

Couture is what they had in mind when they decided to create the UFC Hall of Fame.  A late arrival to Mixed Martial Arts, Couture has continually defied nature and expectations, turning in legendary performances every time people thought he was done.  A powerful wrestler with good top control and ground and pound, Couture’s most deadly weapon is his dirty boxing from the clinch, where he is a master of bullying opponents around and doing damage.  His submission defense is also very good, despite a few losses early in his career, which is a huge help against a grappler of Noguiera’s caliber.  His actual boxing is powerful but sloppy, but he usually only uses it to close the distance and get in close.  Despite a loss to Brock Lesnar in his last fight, Couture acquitted himself well and showed no signs that age has finally caught up with him.

Noguiera, on the other hand, looked seriously depleted in his last fight, a shellacking at the hands of Frank Mir.  While Noguiera’s camp attributed his sluggish performance to sickness, it is at least worth considering that the huge number of beatings he has taken over the course of his career have finally begun to take their toll.  It would be unwise, though, not to give the benefit of the doubt to a guy who has been around as long Nogueira has.  A skilled technical boxer and top-level grappler, Noguiera’s best trait has always been his granite chin, which looked invulnerable until the Mir fight.  Considering Couture’s ability to deal damage from inside the guard and good submission defense, Noguiera’s best strategy will probably be to use his jab and keep a long range to exploit Couture’s inferior technical boxing, and maybe even slip in a takedown attempt or two to keep Couture off guard.

Noguiera’s condition aside, I think this is a bad stylistic matchup for him.  Noguiera’s grappling and boxing are probably better, but Couture’s wrestling is much better, which means this won’t go to the ground unless he decides it should.  On the feet, I think Couture’s more physical style will overwhelm the more patient Noguiera, allowing him to get in close and utilize his dirty boxing.

 I see Couture earning the unanimous decision by controlling the pace throughout.

Predicted by Pat V.

205 lbs. Keith Jardine (14-5-1) vs. Thiago Silva  (13-1)

The semi-main event is a stylistic dream match for fans, as powerful striker Thiago Silva takes on rough and tumble brawler “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine.  Both are coming off high-profile losses, and neither is anywhere near the title picture, but styles make fights and these guys have styles that combine for guaranteed excitement.

Silva, a standout at Coconut Creek, FL’s American Top Team, is a skilled Muay Thai fighter with a surplus of knockout power.  His ground game is solid and underrated, but his best work is definitely on the feet.  Until his last fight, Silva looked unstoppable, but he was utterly destroyed by Lyoto Machida, so it will be interesting to see how he handles his first taste of defeat.  His standup is definitely crisper and more powerful than Jardine’s, so as long as he can make this a technical kickboxing match, he is in good shape to earn another win.

Jardine, arguably the most inconsistent fighter in UFC, has proven that he can beat top competitors, but also that he can show up totally unprepared and get smashed.  His standup is quite good, but so is his wrestling, which for whatever reason he does not employ very often, which has definitely been to his detriment.  If he bulls forward into Silva and tries to bang, this is going to be a repeat of his fights with Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander, and he is going to get blasted into dreamworld.  To win, he will need to keep Silva guessing, mixing in takedown attempts with his boxing and trying to do some damage from top position.

I give the edge to Silva in this one.  Jardine could win this fight with wrestling, but he has shown an unfortunate tendency to stand and trade shots when it is not in his best interest.  If he does that against Silva, he will yet again lose within 2 minutes.  

Silva by KO, round 1.

185 lbs. Nate Marquardt (28-8-2) vs. Demian Maia (10-0)

The second match of the evening, and far and away the most compelling, is a Middleweight clash between long-time veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu phenom and undefeated contender Demian Maia.  With Dan Henderson looking like a lock for the next Middleweight title shot, the winner of this fight will definitely get the next fight with the winner of Silva/Henderson.  What is compelling about this fight, stylistically, is that it is a matchup between one guy who is very good at every aspect of fighting and a guy who excels to the utmost degree at one aspect.

Demian Maia’s jiu-jitsu is hard to even quantify because there is really no one in the sport you can compare it to.  To say that he is a black belt, or even a world champion, doesn’t really communicate how incredibly he has translated his skills to Mixed Martial Arts.  By the time he is done, he may well be remembered as the greatest submission fighter in MMA history.  The only problem is that his standup is very raw and his takedowns, while good, are probably not going to be enough to overcome good wrestlers.  If this fight goes to the ground, Maia will submit Marquardt, despite his excellent submission defense.  The only question is whether Maia can force Marquardt to fight his game.

Marquardt has been a top Middleweight for years, and for good reason.  One of the most well-rounded guys you will ever see, Marquardt has excellent grappling, great wrestling, and standup that is both technical and powerful.  Even more important is his wealth of experience.  From Pancrase to UFC, Marquardt has fought the best in the world for the huge majority of his career, and that kind of big-fight experience is something that no amount of training can simulate.  Marquardt also benefits from his excellent training camp with Greg Jackson in New Mexico, which provides both world-class training partners and world-class gameplanning.  To win this fight, he is definitely going to want to keep it standing.  He has good jiu-jitsu for a cross-training Mixed Martial Artist, but Maia is in a whole different league.

Ultimately, I think Marquardt’s superior standup, excellent wrestling, and experience are going to make the difference here.  Maia is better at jiu-jitsu than Marquardt is at anything, but I think Marquardt has the tools to keep this fight standing, where it will be extremely lopsided.

 Marquardt by TKO, round 2.

185 lbs. Chris Leben (18-6) vs. Jake Rosholt (5-1) 

In a much less compelling and competitive Middleweight bout, Ultimate Fighter season one’s Chris “The Crippler” Leben will return to the Octagon to face Xtreme Couture’s Jake Rosholt.  Both men are coming off losses in their last fight, so a win here might be the only way to ensure their futures with the company.

Leben, who made waves on The Ultimate Fighter with his constant antagonism and drunken antics, is nevertheless a very tough and skilled brawler with an excellent chin, good power punching, and a never say die attitude in the ring.  Notoriously difficult to finish, Leben makes up for his technical mediocrity with aggression and toughness.  In the standup game, he far outclasses Rosholt, so if he can avoid Rosholt’s powerful takedowns, he will win this fight easily.

Jake Rosholt is more of an unknown quantity.  His wrestling is very good, and training at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, only stands to get better.  Like many wrestlers, Rosholt’s game is built around top control and vicious ground and pound.  In his UFC debut, though, he showed a glaring hole in his game, being submitted barely a minute into the contest.  Leben is not a ground wizard, but he is good enough to exploit any big mistakes, so Rosholt is going to have to tighten his game up if he wants to have a shot here.

In the end, I think Rosholt has too many obstacles to overcome to win this fight.  Leben is more well rounded and, more importantly, has a vast edge in experience, not only in number of fights but in level of competition.

 I see Leben imposing his will on the feet, earning a KO victory in the second round.

205 lbs. Krysztof Soszynski vs. Brandon Vera (10-3)

The opening match of the televised event is a clash of two similar fighters, Brandon “The Truth” Vera and Krysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski, both of whom are looking to establish themselves as future contenders for the Light Heavyweight Title.

Brandon Vera, who was initially considered a top prospect at Heavyweight, eventually realized that his size just couldn’t stack up and dropped to 205, where he was expected to be a dominant force.  Since then, he has gone 2-1 and turned in a few decidedly lackluster performances.  Despite not quite living up to the hype, Vera is an extremely dangerous fighter with a versatile offensive arsenal.  His Muay Thai is vicious and unorthodox and he has a very good ground game, training under Lloyd Irvin.  His takedown defense is going to play an important role in this fight, as he probably has a slight advantage standing and a slight disadvantage on the ground.

Soszynski, an IFL veteran, has looked very good since making his UFC debut.  His standup is not amazing, but his physical style coupled with good wrestling and awesome submissions make him a dangerous opponent for anyone.  Against Vera, he probably does not want to stand and trade, because he is outclassed in terms of speed and technique.  On the ground, though, especially from top position, Soszynski has all the tools necessary to control his opponent and even submit him.

Although this is a very competitive matchup, I have to give the edge to Soszynski.  Vera is dangerous, but I think Soszynski’s punishing style creates a bad matchup for him.  

I see Vera getting the best of the early standup exchanges, but ultimately I think Soszynski should be able to control the pace of the fight with takedowns and top control, doing enough damage to earn a unanimous decision.

 Live on Saturday October 10, 2009 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.  Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (10-1) will face Ben Henderson (9-1) for the WEC Interim Lightweight Championship. The fight was originally slated for a rematch between Donald Cerrone vs. Jamie Varner.  Varner had to pull out because he is medically unable to fight at this time. Cerrone will need to get past Henderson so he can get another crack at Varner.

Donald Cerrone vs. Ben Henderson

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Cerrone         (-365)
• Henderson    (+285)

Richard Crunkilton Jr. vs. Dave Jansen

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Crunkilton   (-125)
• Jansen          (-105)

Damacio Page vs. Will Campuzano

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Page             (-340)
• Campuzano (+260)

Noah Thomas vs. Scott Jorgensen

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Thomas       (+260)
• Jorgensen   (-340)

Wagnney Fabiano vs. Mackens Semerzier

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Fabiano    (-825)
• Semezier  (+525)

Eddie Wineland vs. Manny Tapia

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Wineland    (+120)
• Tapia          (-150)

Anthony Njokuani vs. Muhsin Corbbrey

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Njokuani   (-220)
• Corbbrey  (+120)

Charlie Valencia vs. Coty Wheeler

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Valencia   (-325)
• Wheeler   (+250)

Deividas Taurosevicius vs. Javier Vazquez

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Taurosevicius   (-130)
• Vazquez             (even)

Check back closer to the fight date as I will have predictions and current odds.