UFC 100: Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago Prediction
June 26, 2009
170 lbs.: Jon Fitch (18-3) vs. Paulo Thiago (11-0)
The third match of the evening pits UFC newcomer Paulo Thiago against top contender Jon Fitch in what is something of a grudge match. In his UFC debut, Thiago shocked Josh Koscheck with a vicious punching combo that sent the veteran down and out and earned Thiago a Knockout of the Night bonus and a permanent spot on the roster. Now, Jon Fitch will look to avenge his American Kickboxing Academy teammate’s loss and also reassert his own position at the top of the Welterweight pack following his loss to Georges St. Pierre.
Thiago, a dangerous grappler who proved against Koscheck that he can bang it out, too, shocked the world when he debuted in such dramatic fashion. He showed great heart coming back in a fight he was losing to destroy Koscheck’s chin with a brutal uppercut and a followup left hook, and never looked intimidated against the much more established and experienced wrestler. Now, though, he’s been thrown head-first into the deep end of the Welterweight division. No doubt his big win against Koscheck will provide him confidence, but he’s going to need more than that to handle the likes of Jon Fitch.
Fitch, who started his career as a grappler under Dave Camarillo, quickly moved out to American Kickboxing Academy where he has grown into a dangerously well-rounded Mixed Martial Artist. Before his loss against St. Pierre, Fitch won eight fights in a row, which puts him in a tie for second place with Royce Gracie for most consecutive UFC wins, behind Anderson Silva’s nine and counting. To put it frankly, Fitch is just too much for Thiago to handle. He’s too technical, too well-rounded, and too experienced.
Honestly, it’s poor matchmaking, because Thiago has a lot of potential and instead of building him up properly they are giving him too much too fast. Fitch by TKO, round 2.
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Thiago’s KO of Koscheck had more to do with Koscheck getting overconfident than it did with Thiago’s striking prowess. If Thiago can pull this off (which is pretty unlikely) then he will surely make a huge name for himself.
I do agree with you in that they should have given Paulo Thiago someone a little more manageable than Fitch, especially when there are guys like Matt Hughes, Carlos Condit and Brock Larson out there for Fitch to square off against.