UFC 100: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir 2 Prediction
June 26, 2009
Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs. Frank Mir (12-3) for Title
Main Event Odds – (-240 Lesnar / +190 Mir ) at Sportsbook.com
Prediction: I think Lesnar will make Mir pay standing, and if he scores a knockdown, I expect to see him stay on his feet and let Mir get up, only to bruise him some more. Lesnar by KO, round 1.
The main event is a highly-anticipated rematch, in which Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and Interim champion Frank Mir will once again collide to settle scores and unify their title belts. In their first meeting, Lesnar brought the pain to Mir in a big way before making a rookie mistake and getting caught in one of Mir’s deadly leglocks. The question is whether Lesnar’s unmatched size and power will overwhelm Mir totally this time, or whether Mir will be able to put his world-class jiu-jitsu to use yet again and defeat the inexperienced Lesnar.
Frank Mir’s heart and determination cannot be denied. After capturing the UFC Heavyweight Title, he suffered a near-fatal car crash that would have ended most fighters’ careers. Undaunted, Mir fought through over a year of physical therapy to return, against all odds, to the Octagon. His return was not a smooth one, and he suffered some early road bumps, most notably a mangling at the hands of “Pe de Pano” Cruz. He refused to give up, though, and put together a string of good performances, including his submission win over Lesnar and a career-best performance in which he completely lambasted future Hall of Famer Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera.
Despite his previous victory, though, this fight will probably be the toughest test of Mir’s career. He is completely dwarfed by the titanic Lesnar, and if this fight plays out like their first meeting, there is no guarantee that Mir will be able to weather the early storm of Lesnar’s aggression. Most problematic for Mir, though, is that his only real chance of winning is with a submission. His jiu-jitsu is light years ahead of Lesnar’s, but in order to implement it he will have to get Lesnar to the ground, which is a daunting task to say the least.
Lesnar, a man-mountain who has to cut a sizable amount of weight to reach the Heavyweight maximum of 265, has managed to compensate for his inexperience and lack of technique through overwhelming physical power, wrestling, and surprisingly, vicious punching power. Mir, Randy Couture, and Heath Herring have all felt the power Lesnar packs in his punches, and none of them was able to deal with it. Lesnar was foiled by his lack of experience against Mir the first time, as well as by a horrible standup when he was unloading punches on the ground. Someone with Lesnar’s experience in combat sports, though, is unlikely to make the same mistake twice. Even though he is most known for his wrestling, I expect Lesnar to turn this into a pure boxing match. Mir’s wrestling is nowhere near good enough to get Lesnar down, and Lesnar’s superior size, reach, and power will make life miserable for him on the feet.
Not to take anything away from Mir, who is clearly a top Heavyweight, but I don’t see a way for him to win this fight. Lesnar, once bitten by Mir’s stellar jiu-jitsu, will be twice shy about going to the ground a second time. Mir’s standup is good, but Lesnar’s massive hands pack way too much power for him to take many shots.
I think Lesnar will make Mir pay standing, and if he scores a knockdown, I expect to see him stay on his feet and let Mir get up, only to bruise him some more. Lesnar by KO, round 1.
Comments
17 Responses to “UFC 100: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir 2 Prediction”
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MMAMoneyLine on July 1st, 2009 12:52 pm
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Darkmetal on July 7th, 2009 3:26 pm
Mir seems to be quite full of himself lately. He seems to think that his win over Nogeira, who looked like he might have taken the fight while ill, makes him the greatest striker in the UFC, except for maybe Lyoto Machida. Umm, sorry but no.
Mir was decent standing against Nogiera, who looked slow and tired for the fight. Lesnar will not be slow OR tired. He is possibly the fastest fighter his weight class has ever seen, and with one punch KO power that has yet to fully be utilized. I agree with your prediction, but I don’t see Lesnar fearing the ground with Mir. We often see great BJJ guys dominated by powerful wrestlers, and Lesnar is a great wrestler. Expect that if it goes to the ground, Brock will comfortably hold and control Mir with strength alone, and pound, elbow and knee him into unconsciousness.
It will be a very short, although it will seem very long, night for Frank Mir as he goes down to defeat by Brock Lesnar.
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Metalsucks on July 7th, 2009 6:16 pm
Darkmetal, I can see you’re disdain for Mir is blinding you a bit. Everyone who sites Lesnar’s size and strength, remember that Mir has long been touted as potentially the greatest heavyweight in the world if he just focused on his training a bit more. He’s similar to BJ Penn in this respect. Look for Mir to have trained his ass of for fear of being bashed in the skull, and don’t be so quick to write off the best BJJ fighter in the division.
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AEBoyles on July 8th, 2009 3:21 pm
Mir, while a great fighter, will not be able to withstand the strength and speed and power of Lesnar. Mir is not Fedor – who could in my opinion could knock Lesnar out and/or nullify Lesnar’s awesome strength and power with the greatest MMA skills possessed by any heavyweight in the world today. But back to Mir – he’s not Fedor and will be toast before the end of round 3. Lesnar by TKO in round 3 at the most, if not round 2.
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Brock Lesnar on July 9th, 2009 6:36 am
I wont be making the same mistake twice, Mir wont stand a chance when i show him the kicks ive been working on.
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Stevanchez on July 9th, 2009 3:00 pm
How come everyone likes to make excuses for Lesnar? So far on nearly all the blogs and articles I’ve read, I’ve seen things like, “Mazagatti stood them up and saved Mir” and “he made a mistake and gave Mir the fight”. Yeah Mazzagatti stood them up for an illigel blow to the back of the head (which was the right call), but when the fight reconvened, Lesnar dropped Mir with a righthand and got him in the exact same position as before and still got submitted. So that’s not even a valid excuse. As for the mistake he made, that’s just a part of professional sports, if you make a mistake as a pro you pay for it.
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mmafan on July 9th, 2009 11:49 pm
mir will win in the second round….i’m not sure how he will but i do know that….LESNAR WILL NOT WIN
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Jacob Aliet on July 10th, 2009 6:40 am
Mir will win. Lesnar has powerful punches but is not a sharp, quick or accurate puncher. His wrestling instincts will take over and he will rush to pound mir on the floor whereupon he will have his led fckd again.
Mir wins by submission in round two. -
Grant Molina on July 10th, 2009 12:26 pm
Mir in Round 1 via submission Ala Tim Sylvia.
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ball licker on July 10th, 2009 2:18 pm
ball lick
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Joe G, Trenton NJ on July 10th, 2009 3:38 pm
Toss up.
In the stand up war it will be who can take “who’s” better.
Who has the better chin?
Mir has been active, Lesnar has not.
That will make the difference. -
Kinjo on July 11th, 2009 9:27 am
I think you guys are forgetting a very important factor. Stamina. Lesnar is a very strong, powerful and big man. on the other side of that coin is he has a lot of weight to carry in the octigon. If you look back to Brock’s fight with Coulture, you would see that very early on he was gassed. I think Mir’s overall gameplan is to make Brock work and take him to the distant. “Death by a thousand stings” would work beautifully against Lesnar and it will wear him down.
my prediction, forth round submission
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trivium1458 on July 11th, 2009 1:21 pm
i think anything is possible, but im going for lesnar yah we all no that the last time he tapped but you gotta remember lesnar is a rookie and this loss has deff made him up his grounding he’s gonna be smarter this time and gonna knock mir’s on his a**!!!
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baaaaaallllllsssss
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i hate saying i told you so but i told u so hahahaha mir got crushed didnt even land a single punch that was no fight more like an asss whooping hahahaha
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This fight was definitely a lot more lopsided than everyone thought.
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MIR GOT RAPED…in da butt on mypace in da butt in da butt
I’m pretty much in agreement with you here. I see this fight unfolding similarly to their first meeting, except Mir won’t make it out of the first takedown. The only thing that saved Mir in the last fight was Mazzagatti standing the two up after Lesnar’s illegal hammerfists.
If Mir catches lightning in a bottle and subs Lesnar a second time, then he deserves all the respect in the world.