182 lbs. (Catchweight): “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields

The main event is the second of the night’s two catchweight attractions, as former Elite XC Middleweight champion “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler will face off with grappling phenom and former Elite XC Welterweight champion Jake Shields at 182 pounds.  

Shields is coming up all the way from 170 to face Lawler, largely because there is no legitimate competition for him outside of the UFC.  This bout has a bit of old school flair, as it pits a pure striker in Lawler against Shields, who is essentially a pure grappler.  Style vs. style matchups are becoming less and less frequent as the sport evolves, and this is as high-profile an example as you are likely to see.

Robbie Lawler has been around the sport for years, and has cemented himself a place in the history books as one of the better Middleweight fighters ever.  A powerful striker with good technique and a surplus of knockout power, Lawler is a threat to any fighter living on the feet.  He is currently riding an extremely impressive five fight win streak, having beaten the likes of Scott Smith, Joey Villasenor, Murilo ”Ninja” Rua, and Frank Trigg, all quality opponents.  Lawler’s biggest problem is that, like many other fighters who originated at the Miletich camp, his ground game and submission defense are horrible.  His standup is so good that it rarely becomes an issue, but he has a huge soft target on the ground that a skilled grappler can easily exploit.

Jake Shields is exactly the type of skilled fighter who has the best chance of exploiting that weakness.  Shields’ jiu jitsu is out of control good, and unlike many top BJJ players, he has the wrestling game to complement it.  Few men in any weight class are as skilled as Shields at taking an opponent down, controlling them from the top, and locking on a submission for the win.  His standup is surprisingly good, as well, but is generally overshadowed by his nearly unmatched skills on the ground.  That Shields is even taking this fight says a lot about the gap between him and the rest of the welterweights not signed by UFC.

To put it bluntly, I don’t think Lawler has a hope in this one.  Even with his weight advantage, Lawler just isn’t skilled enough to prevent Shields from taking him down and submitting him with relative ease.  

I would be shocked if this one went to a second round.

1.  Andy the Greek on June 1st, 2009 8:04 pm

   You, my friend, are surprisingly right on the freakin’ button.

2.  Nepal on June 1st, 2009 10:22 pm

   I hope you are right. I don’t like Lawler mostly because I don’t like really dumb people that are not nice. I’d like to see Shields get the win and hopefully get on over to the UFC by 2010. After GSP runs over Alves (hopefully and probably) the only real threat on the horizen for him is Anthony Johnson, who is at least 2 or 3 solid wins over higher competition away.

3.  bryan litte on June 3rd, 2009 7:45 am

   are you serious? You just proved that you have no clue what you are talking about. Robbie has not had to worry about his ground game ever in any of his fight except jeremy mahiem, because he knocks people out. But you must not realize that wresteling is what brought him into the mma ranks. and coming from miletich no ground game? every single one of them has a deep wresteling back ground. how about Jens, Matt, or let’s not forget Jeremy Horn.

4.  Pat on June 3rd, 2009 11:28 am

   Every single Miletich fighter has a solid ground game? Tell that to Tim Sylvia, Tony Fryklund, Drew McFedries, etc. Or, for that matter, tell it to the guys who COULD wrestle like Matt Hughes who left the camp because the level of instruction was so poor. The fact that you said Jeremy Horn has a deep wrestling background pretty much says it all. Jeremy Horn was a pioneer in the submission game, but his wrestling is almost legendarily bad.

   As for Robbie Lawler, he’s “never had to worry about his ground game?” The guy got triangle choked by Evan Tanner, who taught himself grappling using instructional DVDs and was a very poor ground fighter. Robbie Lawler has NEVER beaten a quality grappler. The only two guys he ever faced with submission and wrestling games even close to Jake Shields are Mayhem and Nick Diaz. Mayhem made him look foolish on the ground, and Diaz knocked him out standing. Incidentally, even though their jiu jitsu games are similar, Shields has 10x the wrestling Mayhem does.

   The closest thing to a good grappler Lawler ever beat was Joey Villasenor, who racked up his submission wins against trash heap opponents in King of the Cage.

   I think I made it pretty clear that Lawler has extremely powerful punching, although his technique leaves a lot to be desired. Could he win by KO? Of course. But don’t act like his ground game isn’t a soft target, because it is. Miletich Fighters may have come to the camp with wrestling backgrounds, but notice I didn’t say “Robbie Lawler can’t wrestle at all.” I said his ground game sucks, which it does. He can’t sweep, he has poor submission offense and defense, and the looping punches he throws leave him vulnerable to shots.