182 lbs. (Catchweight): “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields

The main event is the second of the night’s two catchweight attractions, as former Elite XC Middleweight champion “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler will face off with grappling phenom and former Elite XC Welterweight champion Jake Shields at 182 pounds.  

Shields is coming up all the way from 170 to face Lawler, largely because there is no legitimate competition for him outside of the UFC.  This bout has a bit of old school flair, as it pits a pure striker in Lawler against Shields, who is essentially a pure grappler.  Style vs. style matchups are becoming less and less frequent as the sport evolves, and this is as high-profile an example as you are likely to see.

Robbie Lawler has been around the sport for years, and has cemented himself a place in the history books as one of the better Middleweight fighters ever.  A powerful striker with good technique and a surplus of knockout power, Lawler is a threat to any fighter living on the feet.  He is currently riding an extremely impressive five fight win streak, having beaten the likes of Scott Smith, Joey Villasenor, Murilo ”Ninja” Rua, and Frank Trigg, all quality opponents.  Lawler’s biggest problem is that, like many other fighters who originated at the Miletich camp, his ground game and submission defense are horrible.  His standup is so good that it rarely becomes an issue, but he has a huge soft target on the ground that a skilled grappler can easily exploit.

Jake Shields is exactly the type of skilled fighter who has the best chance of exploiting that weakness.  Shields’ jiu jitsu is out of control good, and unlike many top BJJ players, he has the wrestling game to complement it.  Few men in any weight class are as skilled as Shields at taking an opponent down, controlling them from the top, and locking on a submission for the win.  His standup is surprisingly good, as well, but is generally overshadowed by his nearly unmatched skills on the ground.  That Shields is even taking this fight says a lot about the gap between him and the rest of the welterweights not signed by UFC.

To put it bluntly, I don’t think Lawler has a hope in this one.  Even with his weight advantage, Lawler just isn’t skilled enough to prevent Shields from taking him down and submitting him with relative ease.  

I would be shocked if this one went to a second round.

180 lbs. (Catchweight): Nick Diaz  vs. Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith

The semi main event of the evening is a very strange catchweight bout between Stockton’s favorite son Nick Diaz and Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith at 180 pounds.  Smith is coming off a dramatic, come-from behind victory over the dangerous Benji Radach, while Diaz is still riding the momentum of his complete thrashing of legend Frank Shamrock.  A big win in this fight could cement either fighter as one of Strikeforce’s top attractions.

Scott Smith, whose nickname “Hands of Steel” is very well-deserved, is arguably the most resilient fighter in the history of the sport.  While his hands are definitely steel, the nickname “Chin of Granite” would have suited him just as well, as he has shown a freakish ability to walk through violent punishment in order to land his heavy hands.  While his technique is not stellar, he more than makes up for it with heart, punching power, an indestructible chin, and sheer aggression.

Nick Diaz, in many ways, is Smith’s polar opposite when it comes to the standup game.  His punching power is nothing to write home about, but he consistently confounds his opponents with good technique, quick footwork, awkward angles, and pinpoint accuracy.  Diaz’s jab has proven the bane of many a fighter, and in his last fight he completely overwhelmed Frank Shamrock standing, which even at this point is no small feat.  Even with that in mind, though, the biggest difference between Diaz and Smith is on the ground.  Smith’s ground game is one tiny step from non-existant, whereas Diaz’s is world class.  Even though he has shown a tendency to keep fights standing recently, Diaz has the tools to finish any fighter on the ground, and if he gets in trouble standing, there is little doubt that he will resort to his grappling.

Ultimately, I think Smith will have his hands (of steel) full with Diaz.  Even though Smith has a much better chance of ending the fight standing, Diaz has confounded more technical strikers with his awkward but precise boxing.  In addition, Diaz has a fall back plan on the ground that Smith just doesn’t have.  

I see Diaz battering Smith with jabs before getting into trouble and ultimately taking Smith down and submitting him in the third round.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers

The evening’s third matchup is a surefire slugfest between former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski and EliteXC veteran Bret “The Grim” Rogers.  Both men have an abundance of knockout power, so the likelihood of this one going the distance is slim to none.

Brett Rogers is most notable for calling Kimbo Slice pathetic at a post fight press conference and for launching James Thompson’s head into an independent orbit during their EliteXC matchup. Rogers’ punching power is unquestionable, and he is a physically imposing figure who is more than capable of bullying most opponents physically.  He is 9-0 thusfar in his career, but Arlovski is an absolutely huge step up in competition.  With a chin that has never really been tested and a lack of top-level competition, this is a make or break fight for Rogers.  A win would cement him as one of the top heavyweights outside of UFC, and an embarassing defeat will make him look like a mediocre guy who inflated his record against poor competition.

Former UFC champ Arlovski needs very little introduction.  A human highlight reel with the kind of punching power that gives guys nightmares, Arlovski’s career has been an up and down road.  For a while, he looked like a one-man wrecking crew in UFC, chalking up vicious KO after vicious KO.  Two losses to Tim Sylvia and a few uninspired performances, however, sent his stock plummeting, and he was unceremoniously cut from UFC.  As it turned out, a change of scenery was just what the doctor ordered, and Arlovski went on another tear, annihilating quality opponents in Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson.  In his last outing, though, Arlovski’s momentum was yet again halted, when he got absolutely destroyed by a Fedor Emelianenko counter punch after attempting an ill-advised flying knee in a round he was, until that point, handily winning.  Arlovski’s striking looked incredible against Emelianenko, but his lack of a chin yet again cost him.

This one is going to come down to Arlovski’s level of aggression.  If he jumps on Rogers out of the gate, using his superior handspeed and accuracy, this is going to be an ugly fight for “The Grim.”  Rogers has more than enough power, though, to put the notoriously glass-jawed Arlovski in a coma with a single power punch.  That puncher’s chance probably won’t be enough, however, as Arlovki’s vast edge in both technique and experience will win the day.  

Arlovski by brutality, early round 1.

Phil “New York Bad Ass” Baroni  vs. Joe “Diesel” Riggs

The second bout of the evening is a welterweight showdown with a little bit olf old school flavor, as “New York Bad Ass” Phil Baroni looks to reassert himself against Joe “Diesel” Riggs.  Both are former UFC standouts who have seen their stock fall over recent years, so a victory in this fight is extremely important to both men.

Phil Baroni is probably best remembered for his complete shellacking of Dave Menne to capture the UFC title, or for his frenetic, self-aggrandizing post-fight interviews.  An extremely powerful guy with an absurd physique, lots of knockout power, and dangerous wrestling, Baroni has all the tools  necessary to succeed in Mixed Martial Arts.  Unfortunately, his stellar potential has gone largely unfulfilled.  A combination of factors, including poor training, steroid use, and non-existant cardio have combined to anchor Baroni firmly to mediocrity.  He’s still dangerous and explosive, though, and anyone who looks at Baroni as an easy win is likely to wind up napping.

His opponent, Joe “Diesel” Riggs, is an equally dangerous fighter who has seen action in every division from welterweight to heavyweight.  A solid striker with a very underrated ground game, Riggs has been hampered by injuries recently, most notably a recurring back injury that has caused him a lot of problems.  In the standup game, Riggs is probably slightly outmatched by Baroni, who has nearly unmatched power and explosiveness.  On the ground, however, Riggs has more than enough tools to exploit Baroni’s notoriously horrible submission defense. Ultimately, I think Riggs’ back is going to be the deciding factor in this one.  Baroni’s takedown defense is very solid, and an injured Riggs is going to have a lot of trouble getting this fight in his realm.  

Unable to take Baroni down, Riggs will join the likes of Dave Menne on Baroni’s KO highlight reel early in the second.

Kevin Randleman  vs. Mike Whitehead

The opening bout of the televised card features the much-anticipated return to the sport of Kevin “The Monster” Randleman.  Randleman’s career has been continually derailed by injuries and a virulent staph infection, but he will be jumping back in head first against the streaking Mike Whitehead.

Whitehead, a powerful wrestler and striker who first gained recognition on The Ultimate Fighter, has been a terror on the smaller shows, winning 14 of his last 15 fights, with the hug majority of those wins 

coming in the first round.  Formerly a Miletich student, Whitehead has upped his game by moving to the highly-regarded Xtreme Couture camp in Las Vegas.  Stylistically, Whitehead is an intimidating opponent, with bruising standup, powerful wrestling, and a decent submission game.

His opponent, Kevin “The Monster” Randleman, is one of the most enigmatic fighters ever to lace up gloves.  A physical specimen the likes of which the sport has rarely seen, Randleman’s wrestling and punching are almost freakishly explosive.  His knockout of Mirko Cro Cop in their first meeting looked a lot like an atomic bomb going off, and no real MMA fan will ever forget the epic german suplex he executed against #1 Heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko.  Despite his explosiveness and physical gifts, though, Randleman has never really lived up to his almost limitless potential.  While, physically, he is a match for any fighter in the world, a troubled childhood left him with some mental baggage that has, at times, cast a dark cloud over his career.

In addition, his loyalty to Mark Coleman’s Hammer House team held back his training for years.  While the rest of the sport was cross training, moving from gym to gym and trying to perfect various styles, Randleman was doing the same things he always did, working his boxing and wrestling in Ohio.  His lack of submission defense is almost legendary at this point, and unless he has done some substantial work in that department leading up to his big return, the wily Whitehead might well make him pay.

Randleman in this fight is like a poorly constructed bomb.  The potential for an explosion is there, and if it happens, no one in the vicinity is going to be left standing.  If Randleman puts his physical gifts to good use, he will completely steamroll Whitehead is spectacular fashion.  Much more likely, though, is that Whitehead calmly defuses the situation with help from a solid gameplan courtesy of his top-level training camp.  

Randleman’s inactivity and lack of quality cross-training will catch up to him yet again, and he will lumber into a guillotine choke from Whitehead early in the second frame.

WEC 41 will take place Live on Sunday June 7, 2009 at the Arco Arena in California.  Labeled the most anticipated rematch in Featherweight history is between Mike Brown (21-4) and “The California Kid” Urijah Faber (22-2).  Faber lost his belt to Brown back in November 2008 trying to be cute with a spinning elbow and then took a beat down via first round TKO.  Brown has since defended his belt against Leonard “Bad Boy” Garcia via arm triangle choke at WEC 39.  Faber will once again be on his home turf and will have the crowd in his favor. Also on the card is fast rising Brazilian Jose Aldo (14-1) who is currently on a seven fight win streak, taking on the tough Cub Swanson (13-2).  Jens Pulver (22-11-1) will also be back to see if he has any fight left in his body fighting Josh Grispi (10-1) and Donald Cerrone (9-1-1) will be taking on undefeated James Krause (10-0).

Mike Brown vs. Urijah Faber

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Brown  (+120)
• Faber   (-150)

Betus.com Odds

• Brown  (+110)
• Faber   (-150)

Jose Aldo vs. Cub Swanson

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Aldo          (-360)
• Swanson   (+280)

Donald Cerrone vs. James Krause

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Cerrone  (-650)
• Krause    (+450)

Josh Grispi vs. Jens Pulver

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Grispi    (-150)
• Krause   (+120)

Manny Gamburyan vs. John Franchi

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Gamburyan  (-240)
• Franchi          (+190)

Rafael Rebello vs. Kyle Dietz

• Rebello (-115)
• Dietz     (-115)

Mike Campbell vs. Anthony Pettis

• Campbell   (-340)
• Pettis         (+260) 

Scott Jorgensen vs. Antonio Banuelos

• Jorgensen   (-145)
• Banuelos     (+115)

Frank Gomez vs. Noah Thomas

• Gomez    (-160)
• Thomas  (+130)

Event: UFC 101 – Declaration- B.J. Pemm vs. Kenny Florian

Date:  Saturday, August 8, 2009 

Venue:  Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, Penn

Broadcast: Live on PPV at 10:00 p.m. E.T

• B.J. Penn (13-5-1) vs. Kenny Florian (13-3)  (Main Event)
• Anderson Silva (24-4) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-5)
• Amir Sadollah (2-0) vs. Johny Hendricks (5-0)
• Kendall Grove (12-5) vs. Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
• Josh Neer (25-7-1) vs. Kurt Pelligrino (19-4)

Preliminary Card

• Shane Nelson (13-3) vs. Aaron Riley (27-11-1)
• Tamdan McCrory (12-2) vs. John Howard (11-4)
• Thales Leites (14-2) vs. Alessio Sakara (17-7-1)
• Matt Riddle (2-0) vs. Dan Cramer (1-0)
• George Sotiropoulos (9-2) vs. George Roop (9-4)
• Jesse Lennox (14-1) vs. Danillo Villefort (9-2)

Here is the fight between Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida at UFC 98. The first round was spent with each fighter trying to feel out the other. Neither were too active, but first round for Machida. Round two Machida turned up the heat and picked apart Evans. Machida via second round KO.