Matt Brown vs. Pete Sell

The opening bout of the evening pits Ultimate Fighter alumnus Matt “The Immortal” Brown against Serra Jiu-Jitsu fighter Pete “Drago” Sell.

Brown is coming off an impressive armbar victory over Ryan Thomas, while Sell is looking to put together a second consecutive win after a brutal three fight losing streak. A win is very important for both fighters’ futures in the sport, so this one should be explosive.

Pete Sell is an extremely talented grappler who has largely failed to translate his skills into success in the UFC. One of the largest impediments to his success has been his standup, which is frankly terrible. His chin is also suspect, which makes it imperative that he gets any fight he is in to the ground as fast as possible.

Another of Sell’s problems has been inactivity. He has fought only five times since 2006, garnering an umimpressive 2-3 record against decent opposition. Clearly, for Sell to come out on top against Brown, he is going to have to take this fight to the ground and work hard for a submission.

Luckily for Sell, if Brown has an achilles heel, it is his submission defense. A skilled Thai Boxer and undeniably tough guy, Brown has shown an inability to defend against quality grapplers thusfar in his career. His submission attack is definitely solid, but he is no match for Sell on the ground, and if he can’t keep this fight standing, he is going to be in big trouble.

Brown’s best weapon against Sell is going to be the thai clinch. If he can stuff Sell’s takedowns and wrap him up in a clinch, there is little doubt that he has the ability to stop the fight.

Brown’s thai boxing, coupled with Sell’s questionable takedowns, should be enough for him to come out on top in this one. All the pressure is on Sell, who will have to continually push for a takedown to have a shot.

Brown, on the other hand, can keep the fight standing and coast to an easy decision, which is what I see happening.

Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller

The second fight of the show features two top prospects at 155 pounds, as undefeated Xtreme Couture prodigy Gray Maynard puts his unbeaten record on the line against 13-1 Jim Miller, currently riding an eight fight win streak including wins over Matt Wiman and Bart Palaszewski.

Stylistically, this is an extremely interesting matchup. Miller’s submission game is extremely effective, and he has finished 9 of his 13 victories with a submission. With only one TKO on his record, it is clear that Miller feels most at home on the ground, which is a good thing for him, since Maynard’s wrestling is so powerful and dominant that there is little question that the fight will end up there. That creates an interesting situation.

Maynard’s biggest strength is by far his wrestling, so it seems a foregone conclusion that this fight will end up on the ground, and that Maynard will be in a dominant position. At that point, it becomes a direct showdown between Miller’s jiu-jitsu and Maynard’s top control and submission defense.

As skilled as Miller is on the ground, Maynard’s superior strength and smothering top control are going to be difficult for him to surmount.

I see Maynard grinding out a largely uneventful unanimous decision by stifling Miller’s offense and keeping him pinned down for the majority of the fight.

Live on Saturday, March 7 at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus Ohio. Quinton “Rampage Jackson (29-7) is returning after his devastating KO over Wanderlei Silva to take on Keith Jardine (14-4-1) in the Main Event.  Rampage will need a win here to earn a title shot and get his belt back, however Jardine will be no push over and will look to put Rampage back in line. Also we have two excellent heavyweights going to war. Undefeated Shane Carwin (10-0) will fight for the first time on the main card against the heavy handed jiu jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3).

Check out our UFC 96 Info page to help with your betting decisions.

Rampage Jackson vs. Keith Jardine

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Jackson  (-325)
• Jardine  (+250)

Betus.com Odds

• Jackson  (-300)
• Jardine   (+220)

Visit our Jackson vs. Jardine prediction page

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Carwin

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Gonzaga (-170)

• Carwin   (+140)

Betus.com Odds

• Gonzaga  (-180)

• Carwin  (-150)

Visit our Gonzaga vs. Carwin prediction page

Pete Sell vs. Matt Brown

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Sell       (-135)

• Brown  (+105)

Visit our Sell vs. Brown prediction page

Matt Hamill vs. Mark Munoz

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Hamill  (-155)

• Munoz (+125)

Visit our Hamill vs. Munoz prediction page

Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Maynard  (-165)

• Miller        (+135)

Visit our Maynard vs. Miller prediction page

Tamdan McCrory vs. Ryan Madigan

Sportsbook.com Odds

• McCrory  (-290)

• Madigan   (+230)

Kendall Grove vs. Jason Day

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Grove  (-185)

• Day      (+155)

Tim Boetsch vs. Jason Brilz

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Boetsch  (-130)

• Brilz        (even)

Brandon Vera vs. Michael Patt

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Vera  (-500)

• Patt   (+300)

Aaron Riley vs. Shane Nelson

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Riley    (-205)

• Nelson (+175)

Check back closer to the fight date as I will have current odds and fight prediction for UFC 96.

Mike Brown vs. Leonard Garcia

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Brown vs. Garcia prediction page

Pats Prediction

• Brown over Garcia via third round KO

 - Brown vs. Garcia Odds

Jose Aldo vs. Chris Mickle

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Aldo vs. Mickle prediction page

Pats Prediction

• Aldo over Mickle via second round KO

 - Aldo vs. Mickle Odds

Rob McCullough vs. Marcus Hicks

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our McCullough vs. Hicks prediction page

Pats Prediction

• McCullough over Hicks via third round TKO

 - McCullough vs. Hicks Odds

Bart Palaszewski vs. Richard Crunkilton

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Palaszewski vs. Crunkilton prediction page

Pats Prediction

• Crunkilton over Palaszewski via second round KO

 - Palaszewski vs. Crunkilton Odds

Damacio Page vs. Marcos Galvao

• For a detailed prediction of this fight visit our Page vs. Galvao prediction page

Pats Prediction

• Page over Galvao via second round TKO

 - Page vs. Galvao Odds

Mike Thomas Brown vs. Leonard Garcia

The main event of the evening sees new champion Mike Thomas Brown, who scored a huge upset against former champion Urijah Faber, make his first title defense against UFC veteran and Greg Jackson protege Leonard “Bad Boy” Garcia, who is coming off a shellacking of former UFC Champion Jens Pulver. 

 Brown, unbeaten since 2005, is currently on an eight fight win streak which includes big wins over the likes of Jeff Curran, Yves Edwards, and Urijah Faber.  Brown’s grappling is excellent, and his boxing, while not exactly technically excellent, is still powerful and dangerous. 

Garcia is also a skilled grappler who has recently shown vastly improved standup.  Considering both men’s proficiency on the ground, I can see the grappling game becoming a stalemate, meaning that the standup is going to make the difference in this one.  In that regard, I give a slight advantage to Brown. 

Ultimately, Brown should escape with his belt courtesy of a late knockout.

Jose Aldo vs. Chris Mickle

In the semi-main event, Nova Uniao slugger Jose “Junior” Aldo, riding a six fight winning streak, is set to meet dangerous grappler Chris Mickle, who has captured 22 wins by submission in his career. 

Aldo’s grappling is also very good, but generally overshadowed by his powerful standup.  The biggest difference between the two is experience.  Mickle has far more career fights, but Aldo has easily faced superior competition.  In the end, Aldo’s superior versatility and level of opposition will propel him to yet another victory, and quite possibly put him in position for a title shot in the near future. 

 Aldo by KO, round 2.

Rob McCullough vs. Marcus Hicks

In what could very well be the fight of the night, former Lightweight title challenger Marcus Hicks takes on former WEC Lightweight Champion and five time World Muay Thai Champion “Razor” Rob McCullough.

Clearly, McCullough’s strength is his thai boxing and clinch work.  Hicks is considered by many to be the Joe Stephenson of WEC, with a deadly guillotine choke that felled the first three opponents he faced in the company.  Stylistically, this is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup.  McCullough will want to keep this fight standing and bang out Hicks, who will no doubt be looking to get “Razor” Rob down so he can stretch his neck. 

In the end, McCullough’s clinch work and powerful striking should be enough to garner him a third round TKO win.