UFC 91: Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar Prediction
November 6, 2008
Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar
Pats’ Prediction: I see Lesnar landing a huge right hand that sends Randy down near the beginning of the fight, and then pouncing on him to finish him off with vicious ground and pound. Lesnar by TKO in a shocking upset, round 1.
In his much-anticipated return to the Octagon, UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy “The Natural” Couture faces a literally massive test, in the form of man-beast Brock Lesnar (+105 Couture / -130 Lesnar odds at Sportsbook.com). One half of a heavyweight “tournament” in which the winner will face the winner of Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Frank Mir for the undisputed Heavyweight Title, this fight promises fireworks, with a UFC legend facing off a physical specimen the likes of which the sport has never seen.
Brock Lesnar, despite his relatively young career, is probably the most recognizable fighter on UFC’s roster. A former WWF champion pro wrestler, Lesnar’s worldwide fame is matched only by his astonishing physical gifts. Lesnar is, put simply, a monster, who has to cut a substantial amount of weight to make the Nevada State Athletic Commission’s 265 pound Heavyweight limit. Despite his gargantuan proportions, though, Lesnar is surprisingly agile.
A former Division I NCAA Wrestling national champion, Lesnar has a firm base on which to build MMA success. Despite his wrestling background, Lesnar has already proven that his punching is also a force to be reckoned with by sending both Frank Mir and Heath Herring crashing to the mat with a single punch each.
Clearly, Lesnar’s one achilles heel is his lack of experience and subsequent lack of technique. He lost to Frank Mir in a fight he was totally dominating because his submission defense was not up to snuff. It’s definitely safe to assume that he has been working his submission defense at his camp, Minnesota Martial Arts.
Lesnar’s opponent, prodigal son Randy “The Natural” Couture, is probably UFC’s foremost legend and Hall of Famer. After entering the game very late, Couture continually amazed fans, duking out with the best in the world at both Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight, capturing both titles and seemingly defying the human aging progress. Astonishingly, Couture’s amateur wrestling credentials outstrip even Lesnar’s.
He is a world class greco roman specialist, and over the years has added solid boxing and submissions to his repertoire, making him a truly formidable force. After a recent layoff during his contentious contract dispute with the UFC, Randy will have to overcome ring rust as well as Lesnar if he hopes to remain a champion.
In all honesty, I don’t see a way for Couture to win this fight. His wrestling may be slightly better than Lesnar’s, but that is rendered moot by Lesnar’s titanic advantage in both size and strength. In the standup game, Randy’s size disadvantage hurts him, as does the fact that Lesnar’s fists pack destructive power and are the size of watermelons.
On the ground, while a competent submission fighter, Randy is not on the same level as someone like Frank Mir. Randy failed to choke Tim Sylvia when they met, and had his back for over 4 minutes in the first round. Mir, for his part, snapped Sylvia’s arm. Begin betting at a www.sportsbook.com or another UFC sportsbook online.
Comments
13 Responses to “UFC 91: Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar Prediction”
Got something to say?
I think you’ve got it exactly right. The way to beat Lesnar is to submit him or stand with him. Couture does not excel in either. Lesnar is beatable by the right type of fighter, but I just don’t see Couture doing it.
Should be interesting though…
I dont know, this is a sport where anything can happen, i wouldn’t count Couture out yet
i don’t care how big lesnar is. couture is a bionic man. he’s 45 and beats ass. also, he’s always the underdog, and still somehow pulls off amazing wins no matter how bad he deck is stacked against him.
1st round tko, lesnar being victor
I think this will be a close match, but i think Couture will come out victorious. I can’t see Lesnar. Still the odds seem so close, it’s hard to count either of them out in this fight.
Well, I admire Randy Couture, but this really is the greatest challenge of his career. He is not only going to need to be in top psychological and physical form, but he’s going to have to need that Lesnar not be in his top form. I actually think a very active stand-up game is what Couture needs to win here. The bigger a guy is, the less stamina he has. Couture, even with the severe age difference, has to be in better aerobic condition. I’m assuming this will be a 5 round fight, and thus Couture will have the chance to wear this guy out. We all know Randy can do it, he just has to watch those mammoth bricks attached to Lesnar’s arms and stay out of the clinch. You really can’t clinch with a guy like Lesnar because he’ll just pull you to the ground and sit on top of you.
Wow, you guys have really loaded up on the Brock Lesnar Kool-Aid. I don’t know how one would figure 2-1 fighter being the greatest challenge for a top ten legend in Couture (because he decisioned Herring? or does physique now determine MMA skills?). As far as how Couture will finish the fight, he’s no Anderson Silva striking nor Nogueira’s BJJ but he doesn’t need to be for Lesnar and certainly possesses more than enough skills in both departments to finish an opponent with 3 fights.
It also makes no sense to say that Lesnar’s wrestling is superior or even comparable to Couture’s wrestling, which has been adapted and refined for MMA over 10 years and 24 fights.
Couture will submit an exhausted Lesnar in rd 3.
BTW Pat, awesome site!
Lesnar is just so damn fast for being a monster.
Ummm…Stopped reading after the first couple sentences. Lesnar is the favorite, how is it going to be a shocking upset. If you didn’t even know Lesnar is the favorite, probably the rest of what you say is shite.
It would be shocking due to the fact that Lesnar has only four MMA fights under his belt. I really dont think he deserves a shot at Couture so early in his career, but like Dana said the fight makes money. Yes I know he is the favorite on the sportsbooks.
The books opened Couture as the favorite. The betting favorite isn’t always what the majority of the people think should be favorite. Numerous other examples but take the more recent Machida/Ortiz bout, Machida was a -200 favorite but his win was an big upset considering the amount of money and people that were on Ortiz to win.
well lesnar is just big as hell i mean couture’s skills out do lesnars anyday but this is a massive man theirs a possibility couture wins if he doesnt get intimadated by lesnars massiveness
While I admire Couture as a great warrior and athlete, the chances are high that he is physically no longer what he was. I hope he proves me wrong, but at 45, after so many months out of competition, and after so many wars (1/3 being losses) earlier in his career, Couture will likely find, as many extraordinary competitors before him eventually found, that he can’t physically do what his mind knows to do. In particular, his timing may be off, and he won’t be able to “pull the trigger”. If so, then Lesnar, who’s in the peak years of his athletic career, will dominate. Of course, Couture has beaten the odds before, but the math is worse today than ever. I hope Randy goes wild and proves me completely wrong, but my prediction is Lesnar by early stoppage.